1. Procedural urgencies and legal deadlines
This cluster measures the direct procedural pressure. The 27 May 2026 parliamentary “super-week” added three new layers onto the earlier slipping deadlines: the 16th amendment to the Fundamental Law (ICC restoration, prime-ministerial term limit, the legal status of independent office-holders) is empty — and even risks retroactivity and person-specific constitution-making — without accompanying guarantees (mandatory impact assessment, forward-looking general rules, a Venice Commission opinion). The formal stand-up of the inquiry committees took place in the Magyar Közlöny on 27 May 2026 (see Closed measurement points), but without fair-procedure guarantees (the privilege against self-incrimination, legal counsel, the presumption of innocence) and a proportionate sanctions regime the expanded mandate risks fundamental-rights violations and judicial annulment. Whether the two axes — speed (the two-thirds momentum) and procedural cleanliness — move together decides whether the rule-of-law restoration stays legitimate. This week the tests of procedural cleanliness multiplied: on 11 June 2026 President Tamás Sulyok turned to the Constitutional Court against the amendment aimed at his removal, sharpening the question of whether awaiting a Court interpretation precedes the final vote; the 16 June extraordinary session makes the quality guarantees of fast-track legislation a benchmark (a condition list, an annual cap, a five-working-day consultation window, a mandatory ex post review); and the dismissal of all four intelligence chiefs measures whether depoliticisation is accompanied by merit-based, vetting-bound selection and strengthened cross-party parliamentary oversight, rather than another loyalty-based reshuffle. This week the stakes turned sharp: the National Assembly passed the 16th amendment to the Fundamental Law (term limit, abolition of the KEKVA foundations and the Sovereignty Protection Office) on 15 June 2026 without awaiting the Constitutional Court’s interpretive ruling, President Sulyok signed it with reservations on 19 June, and the Monday hearing was struck from the agenda after seven justices recused themselves — so the benchmark is now the bound procedure of the renewal (nomination before replacement, untouched competences) and, after the removal of the Integrity Authority’s president, a closed dismissal regime for independent authority heads that is open to judicial review. This week the procedural benchmark gained new layers: a minimum 30-day substantive consultation tied to the submitted asset-recovery bill, fair procedure before amendments touching constitutional dignitaries (the head of state), and — following the detention motion in the gold-convoy case — protection of the prosecution’s procedural independence — all further tests of speed and cleanliness moving together. This week the procedural benchmark deepened further: the MP term limit and the 17th amendment (Sulyok’s removal, 70+ Constitutional Court justices) share one yardstick — an ex ante constitutional stress test and awaiting the Venice Commission’s opinion before the final vote — while the abolition of the Sovereignty Protection Office turns on document security and a rule-based, not deal-based, staff transition. This week the procedural test shifted toward execution: the Monday final vote on the Basic Law amendment and the departure of the Constitutional Court’s president make mandatory prior impact assessment and awaiting a Venice Commission opinion the yardstick, while the published eligibility criteria for the back-to-school benefit and the DSA coordinator’s audit capacity test whether new benefits and platform rules run on criteria rather than discretion.
4
2026-05-28 — Veto right codified in cabinet rules of procedure (published)
High
Active
Cabinet rules of procedure on kormany.hu; scope of veto, procedure, override mechanism recorded (first cabinet meeting + 15 days).
5
2026-06-08 — Institutionalised conflict-of-interest protocol for cabinet members
High
Active
Public protocol for spousal / partner / lineal / in-law relations of cabinet members; mandatory declaration at every new appointment; target: 100% declaration rate by day 100 (Venice Commission + OECD Public Integrity 2017 model).
6
2026-06-11 — Government Handover Report published
High
Delayed
Contracts and commitments above HUF 500 M itemised, machine-readable, on kormany.hu (within 30 days).
7
2026-06-15 — Data-protection / Interior Ministry proportionality assessment
Medium
Active
Which public institutions retain biometric systems; EU AI Act-compliant risk classification.
8
2026-06-16 — Making fast-track procedure a regulated exception in the House Rules
High
Active
Whether the 16 June House Rules amendment fixes limits on fast-track legislation (a condition list, an annual cap, a mandatory public justification) and a five-working-day minimum consultation window.
9
2026-06-17 — Uniform leadership dismissal and handover template protocol
High
Active
Public PMO template protocol: text template, Magyar Közlöny publication regime, handover document list, advance damages-risk assessment + justice countersignature above HUF 1 M (within 30 days).
10
2026-06-26 — Mandatory public impact assessment and consultation for Fundamental Law amendments
High
Active
Every Fundamental Law amendment should come with a public impact assessment, documented consultation and — on substantive constitutional questions — a requested Venice Commission opinion; the 16th amendment (ICC, term limit) is the first test of this benchmark.
11
2026-06-27 — Prime-ministerial term limit as a clean, forward-looking general rule
High
Active
The “lex Orbán” term-limit text should be forward-looking and general (resolving the retroactivity dispute) and withstand constitutional and international review; the legal status of independent office-holders (Prosecutor General, Kúria President, head of state) should not be settled by ad hoc, person-specific constitution-making either.
12
2026-06-30 — Opening Balance 2026 publication
High
Active
Itemised inherited liabilities and unfunded promises in a comprehensive audit.
15
2026-07-08 — Joint justice–interior procedural framework for major accountability cases
High
Active
Public procedure: opening of secret-service files on 22 October 2026, asset recovery (only on final court ruling), professional cleanliness of active bribery cases; blind case allocation; formal dialogue with the Hungarian Judges’ Association.
16
2026-07-11 — Document-retention law amendment with urgency
Medium
Active
Amendment of Act LXVI of 1995 with sanctions + reference to Criminal Code § 305 (within 60 days); zero new document destruction incidents in the weeks following the transition.
18
2026-07-17 — Closed statutory list of dismissal grounds for independent authority heads
High
Active
Whether the law sets out, in an exhaustive closed list, the grounds for dismissing oversight-body heads (only grave breach, incapacity, conflict of interest), and whether every leadership change comes with a public, legally reasoned decision open to judicial review — after the attempted removal of the Integrity Authority’s president.
19
2026-07-19 — Ambassador review protocol (competitive professional selection)
Medium
Active
Protocol with public criteria, led by an independent panel; 100% of replaced ambassadors via public competition, with 60-day notice.
20
2026-07-20 — Reform of Constitutional Court appointments before the Orbán clause
Medium
Active
Separate legislative package on the appointment procedure for Constitutional Court justices (two-thirds nomination committee, professional pre-screening) before the substantive vote on the constitutional amendment.
70
2026-07-13 — Final vote on the 17th Fundamental Law amendment
High
Active
Watch whether there is real debate time and a prior impact assessment between the bill’s submission and Monday’s final vote. A rushed vote within a few days and no genuine consultation is a red flag.
1
2026-05-09 — Justice minister’s public, itemised recusal declaration
High
Delayed
Görög Márta’s (replacing Melléthei-Barna) structured written conflict-of-interest declaration: closure of legal mandates, excluded case types, named substitute; ≥5 documented substitutions over 12 months.
21
2026-07-20 — Inquiry committee independent expert staff (5 per committee)
Medium
Active
A 5-member independent expert staff, appointed by a two-thirds nomination committee, for each of the 5 parliamentary inquiry committees (within 60 days).
22
2026-07-22 — At least 30-day genuine consultation on the asset-recovery bill
High
Active
Watch whether the National Asset Recovery and Protection Office draft gets at least a 30-day documented public consultation with published responses to submissions. The threatened “few-day” consultation is the main risk.
23
2026-07-27 — Statutory fair-procedure guarantees for inquiry committees
High
Active
Alongside the inquiry-committee efficiency package, the law should enshrine the privilege against self-incrimination, the right to legal counsel and the presumption of innocence — otherwise fact-finding risks fundamental-rights violations and judicial annulment.
24
2026-07-31 — Cardinal-law restoration (≥5 rule clusters)
High
Active
At least 5 rule clusters: electoral system, Constitutional Court composition, independent institutions.
2
2026-05-09 — Six-month consultation protocol before constitutional amendments
High
Active
Tisza caucus’s written commitment: 6-month consultation (civil society / opposition / Venice Commission) before any Fundamental Law / cardinal-law change, 60-day public review. KPI: 100% documented consultation rate.
57
2026-07-31 — Constitutional stress test before tabling the MP term limit (30 days)
High
Active
Whether a public proportionality and Strasbourg-compatibility analysis of the parliamentary term limit is produced before tabling, and whether its findings are built into the final text.
58
2026-07-31 — Rule-based, not deal-based staff transition at the Sovereignty Protection Office (30 days)
High
Active
Whether the takeover of the office’s employees is decided by pre-published, objective criteria (qualifications, public-task need, conflict of interest) with a public criteria list, not by informal bargaining.
25
2026-08-05 — Municipal financial autonomy in cardinal law
Medium
Active
Local Government Act: solidarity contribution, local taxes, procedural guarantees raised to two-thirds threshold.
26
2026-08-07 — First 90 days: zero constitutional amendments tabled
High
Active
In the new National Assembly’s first 90 days the Tisza caucus tables zero constitutional / cardinal-law changes; focus on RRF milestones, AML strengthening, fiscal impact analysis.
27
2026-08-12 — 90-day public emergency-decree audit closed
High
Active
Wartime emergency decree typological audit (A/B/C categorisation) closed, dashboard on kormany.hu (termination + 90 days).
28
2026-08-19 — Inquiry committee first interim report (all 5 committees)
Medium
Active
All five inquiry committees (clemency, MNB, enforcement, child protection, NER) publish a first interim report within 90 days of launch.
29
2026-08-20 — Sovereignty Protection Office closing data-management statute
Medium
Active
Data-management closing statute concurrent with the Office’s abolition: public list of data holdings, data-subject erasure rights, NAIH monitoring (within 90 days).
30
2026-09-12 — “C”-category decrees revoked
High
Active
All decrees untenable from a rule-of-law perspective (retroactive effect, assembly restrictions) revoked; “B”-category (price caps, interest-rate stops) populist decrees get a 12-18 month phase-out timetable.
31
2026-10-22 — Opening of secret-service files
High
Active
Politically uncontestable handling via the joint justice–interior procedural framework; one of the cabinet’s most sensitive accountability processes.
64
2026-08-31 — Final, public eligibility criteria announced before the school year
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when the income threshold, eligible-child range, amount and payment schedule are clearly and finally public before the school year starts. A criterion that narrows midstream as a comms reaction is the bad sign.
65
2026-09-01 — Automatic, application-free award by the start of the school year
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when the state determines eligibility automatically from existing data, with no separate application. The signal is a shrinking take-up gap: few eligible families dropping out for administrative reasons.
69
2026-09-01 — Linking media-literacy education to platform regulation
Medium
Active
Watch whether the coming school year brings substantive (not optional-club level) media-literacy content into public education, explaining engagement-tuned recommender systems and signs of compulsive use. Fulfilled when the share of schools running it measurably grows.
71
2026-09-01 — Departure of the CC president and three over-70 justices
Medium
Active
Under the amendment, the Constitutional Court president and three justices over 70 would have to leave by 1 September. Watch whether the reshuffle strengthens or weakens the court’s substantive oversight role.
32
2026-11-28 — Proportionate, graduated inquiry-committee sanctions regime
Medium
Active
Instead of million-forint fines and forced appearance, a tiered, income-proportionate sanction under judicial control; compelled appearance only as a last resort. The number of concrete legislative/institutional proposals emerging from the final reports is the measure of real output.
72
2026-10-10 — Mandatory prior impact-assessment package for constitutional changes
Medium
Active
MIAK calls for a mandatory public impact assessment and genuine consultation, with a 90-day lead time, for every Fundamental Law or cardinal-act amendment. A good sign is its adoption plus routine requests for the Venice Commission’s opinion.
33
2026-12-31 — 80% of “A”-category decrees raised to parliamentary statute
High
Active
Min. 80% raised to statutory rank in regular parliamentary debate, with committee debate + ex ante Constitutional Court norm-control.
34
2026-12-31 — Independent institution-head appointments (CC, SAO, Ombudsman, NEC)
High
Active
Public hearings + plenary votes with opposition consultation.
66
2026-11-30 — Review of how the second, November instalment can actually be spent
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when the government reviews what the second 50,000 HUF voucher arriving mid-autumn can be spent on, since it barely serves the original back-to-school purpose. The signal is a broadened, realistic list of eligible uses.
35
2027-01-31 — First annual “constitutional stress test” report
Medium
Active
At least 15 indicators, mandatory parliamentary debate; the institutionalised form of the annual, independent constitutional stress test (judicial independence, media pluralism, electoral integrity) raised in connection with the Sulyok case.
36
2027-05-09 — Institutional Health Report — annual independence measurement
Medium
Active
10+ objective indicators on the functioning of CC, SAO, prosecution, ombudsman, media authority; 2027 H1: first public report.
39
2027-06-22 — Introduce annual public Institutional Health Report
Low
Active
Watch whether the prime-ministerial term limit is paired with an annual public “Institutional Health Report” measuring the real independence of the Constitutional Court, State Audit Office, prosecution and ombudsman with at least 10 objective indicators, published from 2027.
59
2027-07-01 — Milder tools before the term limit: campaign cap and transparent candidate selection (12 months)
Low
Active
Whether a campaign-spending cap and an open candidate-selection procedure are introduced before or instead of the term limit, testing the least intrusive effective tool first.
40
2028-06-22 — Extend term limits to constitutional offices with stress-test
Low
Active
Watch whether cyclic term limits extend to key independent offices and whether an annual constitutional “stress test” is established. Fulfilment is signalled by a public, yearly stress test and depoliticised appointments.
3
2026-05-17 — Public release of ministerial dossiers
High
Active
For each minister-designate: career CV + conflict-of-interest declaration.
37
2027-05-14 — Transitional rule share drops below 30%
Medium
Active
Share of decrees temporarily preserved under the Melléthei-Barna legislation falls below 30%; benchmark of rule-of-law restoration.
41
June 2026 (2nd half) — Anti-corruption legislative package tabled before the National Assembly
High
Active
Whether the structural-prevention anti-corruption package the government announced on 5 June 2026 is tabled and put on the National Assembly’s agenda; and whether the text builds on preventive logic (procurement transparency, machine-readable asset data, whistleblower protection, an independent anti-corruption authority) or merely on punitive logic.
67
2027-07-11 — Strengthening the Digital Services Coordinator’s audit capacity
Low
Active
Watch whether Hungary’s Digital Services Coordinator (NMHH) gains dedicated, quantified capacity: staff able to run technical audits, algorithm-inspection competence, and predictable procedures. Fulfilled when expert headcount and the number of closed domestic cases rise measurably.
73
2027-07-12 — Institutionalising an annual constitutional stress test
Low
Active
An independent expert review on whether checks and balances work both ways should run on a 12-month cycle. A good sign is the first public stress test being completed within a year.
68
2028-01-11 — Proportionate, SME-friendly default protection for minors
Low
Active
Watch whether infinite scroll, autoplay, and addiction-tuned notifications are off by default for minors, with size-proportionate guidance separating large platforms from small domestic providers. Fulfilled when coverage on big platforms hits 100% while SME burdens stay distinct.
38
2027-06-16 — Irreversibility of the term limit + a confirming Venice Commission opinion
Medium
Active
Whether the prime-ministerial term limit (passed 15 June 2026, signed for promulgation on 19 June) is still in force 12 months on, and whether broad consultation (a substantive Venice Commission opinion) confirms it after the fact — dissolving the charge of retroactivity and person-specific drafting.
14
2026-07-06 — Mandatory administrative consultation and impact assessment (Legislation Act amendment)
High
Active
No shorter than 30 days even in urgent cases; mandatory involvement of municipal interest representatives (TÖOSZ, MJVSZ).
43
From the Venice Commission opinion — Awaiting the Venice Commission’s opinion in the head-of-state case
High
Active
Whether the Venice Commission issues its (urgency-procedure) opinion on the removability of the head of state, and whether the Hungarian decision takes it into account; whether the head-of-state question is settled solely within the removal procedure under the Fundamental Law (two-thirds + Constitutional Court), not by ultimatum.
44
Legislative cycle — Children’s-rights reform: institutionalising a specialist ombudsman + Participation Group
Medium
Active
Whether a standalone children’s-rights specialist ombudsman and an independent monitoring role are set up, whether the Equal Treatment Authority is restored, and whether the competent ministry gives a mandatory, reasoned public response to the recommendations of the Children and Youth Participation Group (within 60 days, even in case of rejection).
45
end-2026 — Constitutional stress-test report on the public-law conflict
Medium
Active
Whether an independent expert report is produced by end-2026 on how the checks-and-balances system performed in the head-of-state vs. majority conflict, and whether the precedent would block a future, opposite-direction concentration of power.
46
Before final vote — Mandatory impact assessment for the FX-loan suspension
Medium
Active
Whether a public legislative impact assessment is prepared before the final vote on suspending ongoing FX-loan lawsuits and enforcement actions (who wins/loses, fiscal and legal effects).
47
Within 12 months of adoption — Mandatory ex post review of every fast-tracked law
Medium
Active
Whether every law adopted via fast-track gets a public ex post impact review within 12 months (did it meet its goal, how many amendments it needed).
48
Before final vote — Awaiting the Constitutional Court interpretive ruling before the amendment
High
Delayed
Whether the Constitutional Court interpretive ruling is issued before the final vote on the contested constitutional amendment, and whether the majority and the head of state commit to accepting it in advance.
49
Concurrent with the appointments — Merit-based, vetting-bound selection of intelligence chiefs
Medium
Active
Whether the new intelligence chiefs are selected on public, pre-set professional competence criteria and mandatory pre-appointment security vetting, not on political loyalty.
50
Within the legislative cycle — Strengthened cross-party parliamentary oversight of the intelligence services
Medium
Active
Whether the parliamentary National Security Committee gains substantive information and investigation powers accessible to the opposition too, and whether independent review of special intelligence tools is operational.
51
2027 school year — Competition-based, professional selection of vocational-centre heads
Medium
Active
Whether the new single heads of vocational training centres are selected through a public, documented professional competition on pre-set competence criteria, excluding political influence.
52
Legislative cycle — Public-law renewal: a public nomination procedure BEFORE removals
Medium
Active
In how many of the renewed public-law offices (Constitutional Court, Kúria, prosecution, head-of-state circle) a statutory, depoliticised, professional nomination procedure precedes the actual replacement; target: 100%, so that the renewal does not become a loyalty-based refill.
53
Legislative cycle — Untouched competences during the renewal (no institutional renaming or veto-stripping)
Medium
Active
How many competences are altered or how many institutions are renamed during the public-law renewal to bypass a removal; target: 0 — no stripping of the head of state’s veto, no institutional-renaming trick to dodge the bound procedure.
54
Procedural (open) — Re-tabling the case after the recusal of the constitutional justices
High
Active
After seven constitutional justices recused themselves on 19 June 2026 and the Monday (22 June) hearing was struck from the agenda, whether the motion on the head of state’s removability returns to the Court’s agenda and ends with a quorate panel and a reasoned decision — or stays indefinitely unresolved due to the lack of a quorum.
55
Procedural — 30 days instead of five — At least 30-day consultation for amendments affecting constitutional offices
High
Active
Watch whether constitutional amendments touching the status of the president, constitutional courts and independent institutions get a mandatory minimum 30-day genuine consultation instead of the planned five days.
56
Ongoing proceeding — Gold-convoy case: protect prosecutorial procedural independence
High
Active
Watch whether the prosecution proceeds with documented steps and no trace of external instruction, whether courts decide on coercive measures with substantive reasoning, and whether political actors refrain from directive statements.
60
On entry into force (promulgation + 15 days) — Document security and independent archival custody when the office is abolished
High
Active
What share of the office’s records is placed, documented and inventoried, into independent archival custody (target: 100 percent), preventing records from disappearing amid the merger’s disorder.
61
Before publication — Uniform statutory access-criteria framework with a data-protection filter for the agent files
Medium
Active
Whether a uniform, public statutory access-criteria framework appears before 22 October that anonymises the sensitive data of non-public third parties by NAIH standards.
62
Before the final vote — Ex ante constitutional stress test and awaiting the Venice Commission opinion (17th amendment)
High
Active
Whether the sharpest elements of the 17th amendment (Sulyok’s removal, 70+ Constitutional Court justices) are subjected to independent constitutional scrutiny, and whether the Venice Commission’s opinion is awaited and its recommendations built into the final text.
63
Autumn 2026 (constitution-making) — Structural, parity-based nomination guarantee for filling key positions
Medium
Active
Whether the constitution-making promised for the autumn introduces parity-based or qualified-consensus nomination for the heads of the Constitutional Court, the judiciary and the regulatory bodies, so that no single two-thirds majority can pack them, and whether the process runs with a multi-month debate.
2. Cabinet first-100-day actions
The 100-day horizon is the new government’s legitimacy window: public introductions of department heads, slimming the cabinet structure (from 40+ to <25 staff per ministry), and the civil-service retention package are all preconditions for bureaucratic continuity. After the 12 May 2026 installation the reference date is 21 August 2026 (installation + 100 days). The new blogs (6 May — Tarr Zoltán 100-day priorities, 9 May — ministerial team, 12 May — competency test, 14 May — cabinet members’ tasks and powers decree, 16 May — public administration state-secretary review) layered three measurement types on top: a 100-day cabinet measurement dashboard, a mandatory conflict-of-interest protocol with a family-business interest map, and a three-round competency test for the public administration state-secretary layer. The “ministerial appointments take effect” measurement point was met on 12 May 2026 (see Closed measurement points), but with delay — the political announcement cadence ran ahead of the constitutional schedule. Institutionalising the competency test and the 70% convergence of civil-service pay with the private sector fall outside the 100-day legitimacy window; the short-term KPI here is the public profile (CV + conflict-of-interest declaration) of the 16 public administration state-secretaries. This week the replacement of the law-enforcement and administrative top layer (national and Budapest police chiefs, the OMSZ director-general, 3 ambassadors, 45 foreign-service officials) brought the question to a head: removal alone is not yet reform — the benchmark is whether the succession runs through open competition with fixed competency criteria and whether the transition does not degrade service continuity.
1
2026-05-17 — Ministerial cabinet org chart (max 25 staff per ministry)
High
Active
Publicly released staff organisation with cap-setting.
2
2026-05-17 — Civil-service retention package
Medium
Active
18-month dismissal moratorium + career system for non-managerial officers.
3
2026-06-15 — New public administration state-secretaries’ public profiles
High
Active
100% CV, conflict-of-interest declaration, appointment justification, asset declaration online (appointment + 30 days).
4
2026-06-15 — Ministerial teams fully stood up
High
Active
Advisers, state secretaries appointed and operational.
5
2026-06-24 — Public appointment dossier for all 55 state secretaries
High
Active
Within 30 days the Prime Minister’s Office publishes a uniform public dossier for every state secretary (CV, asset declaration, objectives); KPI: publicly available for 100% of the 55 state secretaries.
6
2026-06-29 — Combined-ministry portfolio overlap protocol
Medium
Active
For every two-ministry area (NKA, public-media curatorium, HUN-REN/MTA) a public decision-responsibility protocol; target: 100% publication.
7
2026-06-30 — New ministry structure operational
High
Active
5 new ministries (16 portfolio areas) actually working.
8
2026-07-24 — State-secretary conflict-of-interest screening and merit-based justification published
Medium
Active
Every state-secretary appointment passes a documented conflict-of-interest screening and the merit-based justification is public, with 2-4 measurable 100-day performance targets per portfolio. KPI: 100% of appointments screened.
9
2026-08-07 — Mandatory conflict-of-interest protocol with family-business interest maps
High
Active
4-generation (parent-spouse-child-sibling) mapping and HUF 10 M+ business interests at every nomination; machine-readable asset declaration before swearing-in.
10
2026-08-07 — Independent impact assessment for every new law (I3)
High
Active
Mandatory 5-year cost-benefit analysis, stakeholder-proportionality test, Kahneman audit, sunset clause; 60% by end 2026; 100% by mid-2027.
11
2026-08-08 — Ministerial 100-day KPI package per new ministry
High
Active
Share of ministerial KPI packages published on the government portal — 3-5 measurable goals with deadline/owner per new ministry; target: 100%. Operational frame of the Drucker audit.
12
2026-08-17 — 100-day police professional review (Pósfai ministry)
High
Active
Separation of politically targeted vs. professional investigations over the past 5 years; competency-based portability assessment; depoliticisation roadmap + competitive county police chief system.
13
2026-08-21 — 100-day cabinet measurement dashboard public
High
Active
Every ministry’s 100-day and annual commitment measurable in KPIs on kormany.hu with red/amber/green marking (installation + 100 days); minimum 95% ministry coverage.
14
2026-08-31 — Strategic ministerial action plans
Medium
Active
Foreign affairs, justice, defence; 100-day action plans published on ministerial websites.
15
2026-09-01 — OMSZ director-general open competition closed, new leadership starts
Medium
Active
Whether the open competition launched for the director-general of the National Ambulance Service (dismissed on 3 June 2026) is concluded, and whether the new leadership actually takes office on 1 September 2026 — as a sign of a merit-based, public procedure.
16
2027-04-30 — Average hospital waiting list length −10% (NEAK baseline)
Medium
Active
At least 10% reduction in average hospital waiting list length vs. April 2026 NEAK baseline — element of Hegedűs Zsolt’s 100-day health priority matrix.
17
2027-04-30 — Slowing teacher turnover at the 100 most disadvantaged primary schools
Medium
Active
Whether Lannert Judit’s professional-autonomy framework reduces teacher turnover at the 100 most disadvantaged primary schools — Schleicher-style KPI.
18
2027-05-09 — Independent 12-month professional evaluation board — first report
Medium
Active
MTA + Chamber of Engineers + Fiscal Council + Asset Recovery Office four-member evaluation board for each ministry; publicly submitted report + ministerial rebuttal.
19
2027-05-16 — Public administration competency test institutionalised
Medium
Active
Three-round competency test institutionalised for the public administration state-secretary layer (within 12 months); panel with independent experts; civil-service / private median pay convergence to 70% over 5 years (plan published).
20
First 100 days — Merit-based, public selection system for the top posts
High
Active
Regarding the succession of the top officials replaced this week (national police chief, Budapest police chief, OMSZ director-general, 3 ambassadors): what share of the law-enforcement, healthcare and diplomatic top appointments run through a pre-advertised public competition with fixed competency criteria (open-competition rate).
21
Legislative cycle — Strengthening law-enforcement internal oversight and an independent complaints board
Medium
Active
Whether law-enforcement internal oversight is strengthened (rotational audit, asset-declaration monitoring, public code of ethics, an independent complaints board with civil participation); and whether institutional-continuity metrics (clearance rate, ambulance response time) do not deteriorate during the leadership changes.
3. EU obligations and accession processes
This is the most connection-sensitive cluster, and four of its measurement points were met this week: the submission of the modified RRF plan and the technical fund release (10 June 2026), the public disclosure of the NIS transaction’s transparency dimension (10 June 2026), the EU-embedding of the Transcarpathian minority agreement, and Hungary’s consent to opening the EU–Ukraine/Moldova accession cluster (both 12 June 2026, see Closed measurement points). The cluster’s centre of gravity thus shifts from announcement to implementation: the operational build-out of EPPO cooperation (delegated prosecutors, first case), meeting the RRF milestones by end-August, and the actual Q4 disbursement of the EUR 16.4bn are the next benchmarks. The key distinction, which Kármán’s schedule also records: “agreement”, “unfreezing” and “disbursement” are three separate statuses — the funds are currently unfrozen, not paid out, and the Commission attaches end-of-summer reform deadlines. Without an AMLD-compliant legal framework the EPPO mandate may still come formally; hence the actual start of EPPO operations (early 2027) and the 6th AMLD go-live are a shared outcome variable. The cluster moved into its implementation phase this week: on 4 June 2026 Hungary lifted its veto, on which von der Leyen announced on 12 June 2026 the official opening of the negotiations (the first cluster on 15 June, Luxembourg) — accompanied by the legal transposition of the Transcarpathian minority commitments and an ex ante impact assessment; the rule-of-law commissioner’s (McGrath) visit and the Commission’s country-specific recommendations set a strengthened anti-corruption system and spending discipline as conditions of payment; and the government also adopted the EU Migration Pact, whose preconditions under the MIAK benchmark are a mandatory public impact assessment and rule-of-law guarantees. This week the implementation phase accelerated further: in under ten days the European Commission proposed approval of the modified RRF plan (about EUR 10 billion), at his first EU summit as head of government Magyar Péter announced the end of the daily EUR 1 million migration fine, and the 23 June V4 summit in Budapest is the first test of an issue-based regional restart — while regaining universities’ EU research access and the next rule-of-law report remain the durable benchmarks of conditionality. This week the cluster widened toward the funding architecture: after promulgation of the law on bringing EU funds home, real-time machine-readable public-money tracking and the 31 August RRF absorption milestone are the new execution tests; in the post-2028 MFF talks, preserving the real value of the cohesion envelope and the funding share of the most disadvantaged districts are long-term stakes; and the declassification of the Budapest–Belgrade railway sharpens a four-dimensional transparency benchmark for China-related contracts. This week the cluster sharpened toward execution detail: the Migration Pact’s implementing split (directly applicable regulations vs. directives requiring transposition, a policing — not defence — competence) and the IOM/UNHCR-verified human-rights minimum for return hubs, while a public, data-based justification for divergent Hungarian EU votes and an issue-based coalition of six or seven member states would replace the veto threat with predictable, alliance-preserving room for maneuver. A new layer of the Ukraine accession talks — public agricultural and cohesion principles, a fund-transparency framework and Transcarpathian minority guarantees — ties Hungary’s veto lift to a measurable, principled set of conditions: without them, dropping the veto is an empty gesture; with them, the Hungarian interest is built into the enlargement architecture.
6
2026-07-08 — Public monthly EU-funds conditionality dashboard
High
Active
27 super-milestones, monthly refreshed public dashboard on kormany.hu: condition name, deadline, status (green/amber/red), associated EU funds in HUF, payment status; KPI: 12/12 months on-time updates.
7
2026-07-08 — Itemised, public Carpathian condition package on kormany.hu
High
Active
Structured, Hungarian+English condition package for opening Ukraine’s EU accession: Ukrainian language law / 2017 education act affected sections, Venice Commission CDL-AD recommendations, measurable indicators.
8
2026-07-08 — Substantive, dated reply to the Polish extradition request
High
Active
Whether Hungary (Foreign and Interior Ministries) gives a substantive, legally reasoned reply to the Polish extradition request within 30 days; whether a documented, dated reply arrives.
9
2026-07-15 — EUR 34 bn EU-fund convergence ranking
High
Active
Publicly released, four-dimensional (structural / inflation / institutional / climate) project ranking; 30-day comment window (within 60 days).
10
2026-07-21 — CJEU child-protection law amendment (90 days)
High
Active
Justice Ministry draft for legal harmonisation per the CJEU ruling; vacating the contested provisions of the 2021 “child protection” law through a parcel bill.
11
2026-07-25 — 6th AMLD operational sharpening (90 days)
High
Active
Daily NAV-ORFK-MNB data-sharing protocol; PM organisational statement.
12
2026-07-28 — Substantive response to two new EU infringement procedures
Medium
Active
On the two infringement procedures launched on 28 May 2026 (green-transition consumer information; incomplete transposition of the workers’ lead/chemical-protection directive) the cabinet has two months to address the concerns — the quality of the response is a fast signal of EU conformity.
13
2026-08-17 — Conditional Alliance Policy 2026–2030 doctrine
Medium
Active
The Foreign Ministry’s formal, published doctrine: two-component voting position, strict veto criteria, constructive abstention — the foundation of predictable EU conduct.
53
2026-07-10 — ECOFIN’s final decision on the withheld EU funds
High
Active
Watch whether Friday’s ECOFIN meeting delivers a final, positive decision on the previously withheld cohesion and RRF funds owed to Hungary.
14
2026-08-18 — Four-pillar Hungarian–Polish strategic partnership document
Medium
Active
A signed document with measurable commitments (rule of law, Ukraine support, industry-energy, V4 reform) — not just a joint press statement.
15
2026-08-27 — Publication of the EPPO cooperation implementation plan
Medium
Active
Within 90 days of the submitted accession, a published implementation plan: number and appointment procedure of delegated prosecutors, division of labour, hand-over protocol. KPI: appointment of the delegated Hungarian European prosecutors and the launch of the first substantive case.
16
2026-08-31 — RRF reform package parliamentary adoption (EUR 6.5 bn)
High
Active
Three pillars (corruption / EPPO / independence); von der Leyen August final deadline; 70% RRF drawdown rate by year end.
17
2026-08-31 — RRF Covid-recovery EUR 10.4 bn drawdown deadline
High
Active
How much of the Hungarian share of EUR 10.4 bn Covid-RRF was actually drawn down by the deadline — the toughest measurement of the 100-day cabinet result.
18
2026-08-31 — Meeting the RRF milestones by the pledged August deadline
High
Active
Whether the revised RRF programme’s delivery chain (EC June → Ecofin July → payment Q4) meets its end-August milestones; KPI: the completion rate of the pledged milestones.
19
End of 2026 — MFF deal and preserving the real value of the cohesion envelope
Medium
Active
Watch whether an MFF agreement is reached by the Council’s end-2026 target and whether the 2028–2034 cohesion envelope stays at or above the ~EUR 376bn 2021–2027 level in real terms.
20
2027 — Recoverable (clawback) EU-funds monitoring through 2027
Medium
Active
Watch whether every released EU project gets a public data sheet, 100% project checks and independent cost-benefit analysis above HUF 500m become mandatory, and clawback is built into every contract. Fulfilment signal: actual recovery cases triggered by missed targets.
21
2030 — Raise least-developed districts’ cohesion share above 25%
Low
Active
Watch whether, alongside mandatory machine-readable project records and a clawback mechanism, the funding share of the most disadvantaged districts moves from today’s 12–15% toward the 25% target.
22
2026 Q3 — End of the daily EUR 1 million migration fine
Medium
Active
At his first EU summit as head of government, Magyar Péter announced the end of the daily EUR 1 million migration fine; watch the actual termination date and the total accrued until closure (about HUF 400 billion so far).
49
2026-09-30 — Migration Pact implementing legislation with a regulation–directive split (90 days)
Medium
Active
Whether the National Assembly adopts the implementing package with an explicit split between directly applicable regulations and directives requiring transposition, fixing the competence as policing (not defence).
23
2026-11-05 — V4+ transparency initiative and Western Balkans partner programme
Medium
Active
(a) shared procurement/asset-declaration standards with Czech-Polish-Slovak partners; (b) Western Balkans programme bundle; (c) KP24 ‘Year of EU/NATO’ annual review week first session on the January 2027 agenda.
24
2026-11-05 — Restored OBT-OBH relationship and judicial independence
High
Active
OBT powers restored to pre-2011 level; judicial appointment-promotion via independent professional panel; full transposition of latest Venice Commission recommendations.
25
2026-11-11 — EPPO effective accession date
High
Active
Hungary’s operational EPPO accession (within 180 days); from the 14 May cabinet declaration of intent to actual membership.
26
2026-11-16 — EU-fund absorption rate 35% (EUR 34 bn envelope)
High
Active
Of the EUR 34 bn envelope, min. 35% contracted by month 6; 65% contracted + 25% paid out by 16 May 2027.
27
2026-11-17 — Venice Commission substantive opinion on the constitutional amendment
Medium
Active
The Council of Europe Venice Commission’s substantive opinion on the tabled constitutional amendment (8-year PM term limit, abolition of the Sovereignty Protection Office) — an independent professional yardstick.
28
2026-11-30 — MOL-JANAF capacity expansion contract signed
Medium
Active
Krk terminal Hungarian quota-increase agreement; diversification framework act.
29
2027-04-30 — Conditionality fund release ratio ≥50% (≥EUR 10 bn)
High
Active
How much of the ~EUR 19-22 bn Hungarian EU funds frozen in April 2026 became accessible; target: ≥50% (≥EUR 10 bn); 100% transparency of Hungarian EU Council votes.
1
2026-06-07 — Parliamentary resolution supporting the EU negotiating mandate (Trump tariff)
High
Active
Parliamentary resolution: Hungary supports the Commission’s unified mandate; refrains from bilateral deals; at least two opposition factions vote in favour.
54
2026-12-31 — Public negotiating principles on farm and cohesion transition
Medium
Active
Watch whether the government publishes negotiating principles by year-end on phasing in direct farm payments and on cohesion-envelope safeguards. Fulfilled when the Hungarian mandate puts both budget protections in writing.
55
2026-12-31 — Transparency framework for Hungarian role in Ukraine recovery
Medium
Active
Watch whether the government sets a transparency framework in advance for any Ukraine-reconstruction role touching Hungarian budget or state guarantees, with public project sheets, beneficial owners, and cost-benefit analysis. Fulfilled when all such projects start with public data sheets.
30
2027-05-01 — EU Justice Scoreboard perceived judicial independence +5 pp
Medium
Active
Upward movement of Hungary’s 2026 position (~30%) in the EU Justice Scoreboard perceived judicial independence indicator; the 90-180 day OBT-OBH reform’s outcome metric.
31
2027-05-25 — EU-fund absorption ratio ≥50% of the HUF 12 trillion
High
Active
From the signing of the political agreement, how much of the HUF 12 000 bn was actually drawn down in 12 months.
32
2027-06-30 — Frozen EU funds release rate ≥70%
Medium
Active
European Commission RRF tracker; common outcome variable of the EU accession cluster.
33
2027 — Permanent EU-accession negotiating capacity at the Foreign Ministry
Low
Active
Whether, by 2027, a permanent, trained negotiating capacity is built that prepares Hungarian positions cluster by cluster for the Ukraine/Moldova accession process — so that the Hungarian interest (agriculture, cohesion, Transcarpathian rights) is pursued through issue-based coalitions rather than ad hoc vetoes.
2
2026-06-08 — Lázár-legacy tender-withdrawal audit launched
High
Delayed
Vitézy ministry launches the audit on HUF 280 bn EU funds (Debrecen-Nyíregyháza, ring railway, Ferencváros) and HUF 116 bn HÉV tender; 70% rescue rate within 12 months.
3
2026-06-09 — EU solidarity package on Ukraine to parliament within 30 days
High
Active
Hungarian EU Council position with the majority view; public closure of “separate deal”; humanitarian/reconstruction schedule; public justification of votes.
4
2026-06-30 — EEA framework agreement signing (HUF 91.8 bn)
High
Active
Hungarian-Norwegian-Icelandic-Liechtensteiner agreement with fund-operator list.
5
2026-06-30 — Joint EU-NATO sanction-tightening declaration
Medium
Active
Hungarian initiator role at the June EU Foreign Affairs Council; joint sanction-tightening or air-defence-solidarity statement.
34
2026 Q4 — Start of the actual disbursement of EUR 16.4bn in withheld EU funds
Medium
Active
The start of the actual (not merely unfrozen) disbursement scheduled by András Kármán for Q4 2026; the payment requests go in in September. “Agreement”, “unfreezing” and “disbursement” are three separate statuses — at present the EUR 16.4bn is unfrozen, not paid out.
35
Immediate (overdue) — Transposition of the energy-efficiency directive + notification to Brussels
High
Active
Whether the government transposes the recast energy-efficiency directive (the October 2025 deadline has passed, an infringement procedure is running) and notifies the implementing steps — avoiding a fine before the EU Court. Indicator: closing the running infringement procedures / avoiding the judicial stage.
36
Summer 2026 — Substantive transposition of the anti-corruption directive (conditionality milestones)
High
Active
Whether the Hungarian transposition of the EU anti-corruption directive that entered into force on 1 June 2026 is substantive (not merely the conceptual minimum), and whether the national anti-corruption strategy contains concrete, deadlined commitments (statute of limitations, investigative toolkit, prevention) with public performance indicators; and whether it passes the rule-of-law commissioner’s (McGrath) review.
37
Until the action plan is submitted — Legal transposition of the Transcarpathian minority commitments
Medium
Active
Whether the linguistic/educational/cultural commitments (restoration of the minority school system, free use of Hungarian in education, national symbols in settlements with 10%+ Hungarian population) are written into concrete Ukrainian legislation and into the action plan submitted to the EU, with deadlined milestones. Indicator: the rate of legal transposition, the number of restored schools.
38
10–15 years (long term) — Closing all 33 accession chapters + a binding referendum
Low
Active
Whether, after closing all 33 chapters, the government holds a legally binding referendum on Ukrainian accession; whether the rejection of accelerated (without substantively closing the chapters) accession holds; with an accompanying ex ante public impact assessment of the agricultural, labour-market and fund-allocation effects.
39
Before introduction — Public impact assessment before introducing the Migration Pact
High
Active
The government adopted the EU Migration Pact; whether it publishes a mandatory, public, quantified impact assessment before introduction (transposition) — affected numbers, procedure types, cost, burden on border settlements. Main KPI: whether it appears (yes/no) and at what depth.
40
During implementation — Rule-of-law and human-rights guarantees in the accelerated border procedure
Medium
Active
Whether the accelerated procedure observes asylum/human-rights standards (effective remedy, protection of unaccompanied minors, non-refoulement), and whether the division of competences holds (law enforcement ≠ defence task); whether the Hungarian position in the solidarity mechanism is principled and data-backed. KPI: a faster procedure without a deterioration in the remedy rate.
41
During the review proceedings — Individualised, court-reviewable refugee-status review
Medium
Active
Whether refugee-status review decisions are made in individualised proceedings, with reasoning and judicial remedy (not in a group, political frame); a low overturn rate.
42
12–24 months — Substantive, documented fulfilment of the 27 RRF preconditions
Medium
Active
How many of the 27 preconditions are met substantively (adopted law and a working institution, not just an announcement), and how much of the EUR 16.4bn actually arrives.
43
Before chapters are closed — Ex ante public impact assessment of Ukrainian accession
Medium
Active
Whether a public ex ante impact assessment of Ukrainian accession effects on Hungarian agriculture, cohesion-fund allocation and the labour market is prepared before chapters are substantively closed, and whether Hungary requests transitional mechanisms.
44
Autumn 2026 — Predictable transposition of the Migration Pact — halting the penalty burden
Medium
Active
Whether by autumn 2026 the government submits a clear, public legislative timetable for transposing the Pact (reception, border procedure, solidarity mechanism, with a mandatory impact assessment), and whether the accruing infringement-penalty burden halts.
45
Institution-building cycle — Restoring universities’ access to EU research and mobility funding
Medium
Active
Whether Hungarian universities regain access to EU research and mobility programmes (Horizon, Erasmus+) once board conflicts of interest are settled, and how much funding becomes available — broken down publicly by institution and programme.
46
Next report (2026 H2–2027) — The EU rule-of-law report flags no new concern over anti-corruption bodies
Medium
Active
Whether the next Commission rule-of-law report contains no new concern over the independence of anti-corruption bodies (Integrity Authority, State Audit Office, prosecution), and whether these bodies’ powers or budgets are not reduced during leadership changes.
47
Legislative cycle — Public, case-based justification for every EU Council vote
Low
Active
Watch whether, instead of unpredictable blocking (e.g. Ukraine accession), a public one-page data-based justification accompanies every EU Council vote. Fulfilment signal: public justification published for 100% of votes.
48
From next contract cycle — Four-dimensional analytical framework for China-related contracts
Low
Active
Watch whether future China-related agreements are prepared using the KP21 four-dimensional framework (economic sustainability, demographics, transition risk, multipolar room for maneuver) with an exit scenario. Target: 100% from the next cycle.
50
Concurrent with the decision — Public, data-based justification for divergent Hungarian EU votes
Medium
Active
For what share of divergent Hungarian EU votes a public, fact-based justification is produced (currently near 0 percent, target toward 100 percent), instead of a veto threat.
51
Ongoing — IOM/UNHCR-verified human-rights minimum conditions for return-hub agreements
Medium
Active
Whether every return-hub agreement affecting Hungary comes with a public, IOM/UNHCR-verified human-rights assessment (target: 100 percent), with a non-refoulement guarantee and limited detention.
52
Before March 2027 — Issue-based coalition before the drone entry-restriction takes effect in March 2027
Low
Active
Whether the six or seven like-minded member states the prime minister mentioned form a formal, issue-based coalition (joint position, amendments) ahead of the qualified-majority vote.
56
2027 — Measurable milestones for Transcarpathian minority guarantees
Low
Active
Watch whether measurable, verifiable indicators for Transcarpathian Hungarian education and language rights enter the Hungarian assessment of the accession Fundamentals cluster. Fulfilled when the first milestones are documented rather than left as general pledges.
4. Anti-corruption measures and asset-flight blocking
Asset-flight blocking operates on a dual time horizon, and this week the immediate procedural phase visibly accelerated: in the 30 May 2026 MNB case ~HUF 92bn was frozen (97 individuals, 36 companies, 11 private equity funds), the preparation of the uniform statutory review of private equity funds and concessions began this week (see Closed measurement points), the KEKVA asset inventory (29 July 2026) is the precondition of reclaiming public assets, and the diplomatic-passport regime becomes criteria-based. Structural reform (a 10-year retroactive asset-declaration regime, the Asset Recovery Office, a CPIB-model office) only yields real recovery capacity in 18-24 months. The fast and the structural phase reinforce each other only if the frozen assets get an itemised, public registry and the impartiality of the investigations is documented — otherwise the spectacular seizures read as political revenge rather than rule-of-law accountability. Publication of the NAV money-laundering suspensions has therefore shifted to slipping: the deadline passed with no publication, while related NAV actions are under way. This week the structural phase took a decisive step: on 9 June 2026 the government submitted the EU-fund-releasing anti-corruption legislative package (a strengthened Integrity Authority, tighter asset declarations, prison for hiding wealth) — but the real benchmark is the implementation-capacity timetable (within 90 days: new investigator posts, ring-fenced budget, data access). This is sharpened by the KNYF indicting Integrity Authority president Ferenc Biró on 10 June 2026: without exhaustive removal guarantees for heads of independent authorities, the capacity build-out is reversible. The GVH–Prosecution inquiry committee, by contrast, has shifted to slipping: its set-up deadline passed. This week the structural track gave a double signal: the government deferred the long-promised Asset-Recovery Office law to public consultation on 20 June 2026 (a slip; expected stand-up in the autumn), while the 16th amendment opened the way to reclaiming withdrawn public assets through the courts — the benchmark being that recovery happen under judicial control, not by direct confiscation. The impartial, externally controlled investigation of the gold-convoy case and a protected prosecutorial whistleblower channel are the internal tests of integrity. This week the structural track became more concrete on several fronts: with the National Asset Recovery Office bill, judicial control and property-protection guarantees are the benchmark (no direct confiscation); after the declassification of the Budapest–Belgrade railway, full machine-readable contract disclosure and an independent return-on-investment audit; for the higher-education KEKVA overhaul, board membership tied to professional accreditation; and after the Óbuda park-maintenance scandal, a mandatory open municipal procurement database and a falling single-bid ratio — seized assets become rule-of-law accountability only through a transparent register. This week the structural track gained a further shared yardstick: the KEKVA dissolution (31 Aug) and the Sovereignty Protection Office’s closing balance (30 Aug) both demand the same auditor-certified asset accounting, the healthcare (Borsod) and tourism (Kisfaludy/MTÜ) reviews share the logic of machine-readable public-money disclosure, and the motorway concession (HUF 1,024bn) calls for an audited value-for-money balance. This week the unwinding of captured assets and accountability crystallised into concrete points: the KEKVA asset inventory (MCC, NVVH), the public-money dashboard for Áder’s Blue Planet Foundation, closing Laterex-type procurement loopholes and an itemised, clawback-backed sports-financing register all measure the same thing — dismantling NER wealth is only rule-of-law compliant if it runs on public criteria and judicial control, not another discretionary reshuffle.
8
2026-06-27 — PEP monitoring 6-month retrospective review — urgent government decree
High
Active
Decree to credit institutions on 6-month retrospective transaction review of already-recorded PEP clients and reporting of unusual transactions above HUF 5 M to NAV; bank 30 days, NAV 60 days.
9
2026-06-27 — Moratorium on post-April 2026 communications contracts
High
Active
HUF 50 M+ communications contracts in review window; performance suspended; civil action on legal breach; single-bidder red-flag rule above 30% with SAO targeted audit.
10
2026-06-30 — Independent foreign auditor MNB review publication
High
Active
Public MNB audit report from Big Four Vienna/Zurich offices or an international consortium: 4iG/Tiborcz/Mészáros/Pallas Athéné private equity structure to UBO; 2014-2025 asset management balance; banking pressure documented.
11
2026-06-30 — Itemised registry of seized MNB assets (HUF 91.8bn) + investigative impartiality
High
Active
An itemised, public registry of the ~HUF 92bn frozen on 30 May 2026 across 97 individuals / 36 companies / 11 private equity funds, plus regular prosecutorial updates on the investigation; KPI: time to indictment and the share of charges that hold up in court.
12
2026-06-30 — Impartial, externally controlled investigation in the gold-convoy case
High
Active
Whether the irregularity revealed in the tax-authority report (the gold convoy, the prosecutor-general’s procedure) is investigated with independent external control (State Audit Office, and if needed EPPO) under a documented, public procedure — so the high-profile step lands as rule-of-law accountability, not political revenge.
13
2026-07-15 — Krausz-Élvonal four competitive R&D calls
High
Active
The HUF 261 bn four-pillar theme (attosecond physics, quantum, imaging, biotech) converted to four public peer-reviewed calls (within 60 days); min. 50% foreign reviewers; competitive grant share from 35% to 60% within 12 months.
14
2026-07-26 — 10-year retrospective asset declaration regime (90 days)
High
Active
Justice Ministry bill: 2010-2026, public office holders, into force by mid-2027.
15
2026-07-29 — UBO register for private equity funds to ultimate natural person
High
Active
Public UBO register for every Hungarian-licensed private equity fund at MNB supervision; 30-day mandatory update of ownership transfers; KPI: UBO completeness rate ≥95% by mid-2027.
16
2026-07-29 — KEKVA asset inventory before dissolution (itemised, machine-readable)
High
Active
For every public-interest asset-management foundation slated for dissolution, an itemised, machine-readable, public inventory of its assets within 60 days; KPI: 100% inventory coverage by the law’s entry into force.
57
2026-08-03 — Launch of a healthcare public-money and contract register (30 days)
High
Active
Whether, following the Borsod hospital Medcenter case, a public, machine-readable, searchable disclosure of the service contracts and larger payments of every state-funded institution is launched, with single-bid anomaly screening.
17
2026-08-06 — MNB foundation full asset inventory (2013-2025)
High
Active
SAO+Treasury joint, machine-readable inventory; founding capital, annual revenue, payouts, assets, post-April 2026 disposals; mandatory annual SAO audit for higher-education foundations (METU, Corvinus, MATE, BME).
18
2026-08-10 — Balásy-Tiborcz audit AI-based anomaly detector
High
Active
Public-money dashboard initial version in production (16 ministries, HUF 500 M+ contracts in real time); AI-based anomaly detector; top-50 highest-value contract audit results public by 31 October 2026.
19
2026-08-13 — 4iG defence framework contract independent audit
High
Active
SAO + EU DG GROW expert panel independent audit within 90 days; legal foundation in Magyar Közlöny with public justification; if professionally warranted, tender re-launched within 180 days with at least 3 independent bidders.
20
2026-08-14 — Procurement moratorium for the election cycle’s final phase
High
Active
Legislative package within 90 days: support above HUF 500 M and procurement above HUF 1 bn in the 90 days before the election with suspended effect.
21
2026-08-18 — Integrity Authority power-expanding legislative amendment
Medium
Active
Package submitted within 90 days of the EU agreement: investigative powers, direct right to bring suit, mandatory parliamentary reporting, two-thirds election of the president.
72
2026-07-31 — Wind-up of the MCC foundation and the fate of its assets
High
Active
Track whether the MCC foundation actually winds up at month’s end and whether an itemised, machine-readable public inventory of its assets follows, without harming appeal rights or evidence in pending cases.
22
2026-08-19 — Witness-protection framework act submitted (NER insiders)
Medium
Active
Anonymous testimony, retaliation ban, whistleblower integration; the legal backdrop to the inquiry committees’ fact-finding.
23
2026-08-20 — KEKVA forensic review launched
Medium
Active
Forensic review led by the SAO + the independent Corruption Investigation Office for every KEKVA before the actual recovery; published launch schedule.
71
2026-08-06 — Procedural-safeguard package for asset recovery with public criteria
High
Active
Watch whether, within thirty days, a written and uniformly applied set of asset-recovery criteria is made public, and whether the office stays in an investigate-and-initiate role, leaving guilt to independent courts.
80
2026-08-09 — Accountability transparency protocol for state complaints
High
Active
Watch whether the government publishes a uniform public record for every criminal complaint it files, showing the case, suspected offense, amount, and procedural stage. Fulfilled when the complaint-to-indictment status is publicly trackable without pre-judging guilt.
24
2026-08-20 — Pre-election 6-month public-money embargo (Public Finance Act + SAO Act)
Medium
Active
Cardinal-law amendment: in the cycle’s final 6 months, support above HUF 500 M and procurement above HUF 1 bn tied to a prior SAO opinion; responding to the DIMOP HUF 22.59 bn / 11-project pattern.
25
2026-08-20 — NER-abuse review (PM deadline)
Medium
Active
Whether the review of previous governmental abuses, with public results, takes place by the 20 August deadline set by Magyar Péter.
26
2026-08-26 — Criteria-based issuance rules for diplomatic and service passports
Medium
Active
Within 90 days, public, criteria-based issuance rules plus aggregate statistics on issued documents (count, legal basis); revocation in an individual, reasoned, appealable procedure, replacing the collective practice of the Szijjártó era.
58
2026-08-28 — Public, auditor-certified KEKVA asset inventory (60 days)
Medium
Active
Whether an itemised asset inventory certified by an independent auditor (real estate, land, share packages, contingent liabilities) is produced and published for every KEKVA slated for dissolution.
59
2026-08-30 — Public closing balance and asset accounting of the Sovereignty Protection Office (60 days)
Medium
Active
Whether the office’s itemised, auditor-certified, machine-readable public-money accounting appears: how much it received, what it spent it on, how many investigations it launched and their outcomes.
60
2026-08-31 — Rule-of-law redesign of KEKVA public-asset management in parallel with dissolution
Medium
Active
Whether the new public-asset-management framework includes a fixed-term mandate, mandatory annual accounting, State Audit Office control and a disposal ban by the dissolution deadline (31 Aug).
27
2026-09-01 — Judicial control and property guarantees in the asset office’s mandate
High
Active
Watch whether, before the office’s September launch, the law explicitly anchors judicial control (asset seizure only by final judgment), property rights, presumption of innocence and independent professional leadership.
61
2026-09-03 — Full disclosure of the motorway concession contract and payments, audited value-for-money balance (60 days)
Medium
Active
Whether the MKIF contract and its financial model are fully disclosed, with the fee paid and the investment actually carried out broken down by year, and a value-for-money comparison audited by the State Audit Office or an independent body.
28
2026-09-07 — Implementation-capacity timetable for the anti-corruption package
High
Active
Whether within 90 days of submission the government publishes an itemised implementation timetable: how many new investigator posts, what ring-fenced budget and what data access the Integrity Authority receives.
29
2026-09-30 — Forensic IT and document audit second round
Medium
Active
Server access, deletion logs, physical archive review.
62
2026-10-02 — Retroactive review of NER-tourism (Kisfaludy Program) subsidies (90 days)
Medium
Active
Whether the MTÜ ownership-rights holder orders a full, public review of the discretionary tourism subsidies granted without tender (beneficiaries, amount, delivery), and whether clawback is applied to items that failed to meet their goals.
30
2026-12-28 — Budapest-Belgrade: independent ROI, currency-risk and contractor audit
Medium
Active
Watch whether an independent, public expert audit of return on investment, currency risk and contractor terms is produced within 6 months. Fulfilment: published findings from a body independent of the State Audit Office.
2
2026-05-31 — Itemised public-money audit on 2020-25 hospital IT procurements
Medium
Active
Joining Hungarian State Treasury, EKR, NEAK data.
63
2027-01-04 — Sectoral whistleblower system in healthcare (6 months)
Low
Active
Whether an encrypted, anonymous whistleblower channel with legal protection against retaliation is built (transposing the EU whistleblower directive), and whether the rate of unlawful retaliation against reporters is 0 percent.
31
2027-06-22 — Mandatory open municipal procurement database with anomaly flagging
Medium
Active
Watch whether every municipal procurement contract appears in a machine-readable public database with real-time updates and an AI anomaly detector flagging single-bid tenders and benchmark deviations.
83
2026-09-09 — Public-funds dashboard live before payouts ramp up
Medium
Active
Watch whether every recovery and cohesion payment (beneficiary, amount, purpose, milestones) is posted to a searchable public-funds site before payouts scale up. Fulfilled when 100% of disbursements are itemized and public.
32
2027-08-01 — KEKVA: board membership tied to professional accreditation
Medium
Active
Watch whether, by the August 2027 transition deadline, board and supervisory members are chosen via public tender on verified professional competence rather than political or business trust. Target: 100% of new members on a professional standard.
33
2027-12-22 — Competition mandate on municipal tenders, cut single-bid share
Medium
Active
Watch whether the share of single-bid municipal procedures falls toward mandatory targets (goal: under 15%) and whether “unrealistically low price” disqualifications require detailed public justification.
73
2026-10-05 — Public inventory and public-use plan for KEKVA and foundation assets
Medium
Active
A good sign is an itemised, machine-readable public inventory of KEKVA and wound-up foundation assets within ninety days, documenting how much is redirected to public purposes such as education and healthcare.
76
2026-10-07 — Closing procurement loopholes and running AI anomaly detection
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when targeted legislation shuts the loopholes repeat winners exploit (narrowed bidder pools, single-bid tenders, unjustified technical specs) and anomaly detection runs on every large tender. Signal: a falling share of repeat winners.
79
2026-10-08 — KEKVA public asset inventory and management rulebook
Medium
Active
Watch whether the reclaimed KEKVA assets get an itemized public inventory covering every holding, with book and market value plus old and new custodians. Fulfilled once the inventory and a management rulebook appear on the public-funds dashboard.
81
2026-10-08 — Bill for an independent anti-corruption agency
Medium
Active
Watch whether the government tables a bill for a CPIB-style independent anti-corruption agency empowered to investigate even sitting cabinet members. Fulfilled when the bill reaches parliament with guaranteed independence safeguards.
34
Autumn 2026 (postponed) — Asset-Recovery Office law — judicial control, not direct confiscation
High
Delayed
The bill originally promised for end-June was deferred to public consultation on 20 June 2026 (the office’s estimated stand-up: autumn/September). The benchmark: the office’s role must be strictly preparatory-coordinating and bound to judicial approval (NOT a direct power of confiscation).
35
2026-11-05 — Asset declarations machine-readably published
High
Active
New/outgoing MPs, cabinet members, state secretaries 100% in machine-readable format by end 2026; max 14 days between appointment and upload; NAIH + parliamentary asset declaration portal.
3
2026-06-03 — SAO targeted audit of Rétvári-connected foundations’ HUF 50 M items
High
Active
SAO targeted audit of HUF 50 M items disbursed to 3 foundations linked to Rétvári Bence; campaign-overlap check; PEP rule extension to politician-connected foundations.
82
2026-12-31 — Contract audit extended to every ministry
Medium
Active
Watch whether the defense-ministry contract-review methodology is extended to every ministry and to state firms above HUF 100bn, including the current government’s own contracts. Fulfilled when the reviews close with public summaries.
36
2026-11-13 — Asset recovery package on 3 channels
High
Active
180-day asset recovery package: unjust enrichment, Criminal Procedure Act § 327 forfeiture, OLAF/EU sanctions channel; relief fund for non-culpable subcontractors.
85
2027-01-12 — Public, itemised sports-funding registry
Medium
Active
MIAK wants a machine-readable, itemised registry within six months, showing TAO, Bethlen Gábor Fund sports payments and media rights fees in one place. A good sign is that funding no longer needs freedom-of-information requests to surface.
37
2027-03-31 — Asset Recovery Office — legal foundation and operational launch
High
Active
A2 cardinal-law bill submitted within 90 days of the opening session (by 7 August 2026); operational by Q1 2027; HUF 100 bn annual recovered assets initial target; Independent Corruption Investigation Office CPIB-model draft to parliament by 10 August 2026.
38
2027-04-19 — Independent Corruption Investigation Office operational
Medium
Active
Singapore CPIB model: operational independence, investigative powers, 10-year leadership mandate.
39
2027-04-28 — Final court confiscation rate ≥25% (12 months)
Medium
Active
What share of assets blocked by NAV the court ultimately transfers to the budget — the conversion ratio from blocking to actual recovery.
40
2027-05-08 — Single-bidder procurement share below 15%
Medium
Active
12 months: below 25%, 24 months: below 18%, 36 months: below 15%; AI-based anomaly detector; EU acceptance threshold 10%.
41
2027-05-17 — NER investigation 70+ point case irregularity rate 60%
Medium
Active
Within one year, share of cases where SAO or KBH proves irregularity min. 60%; below 50% the methodology must be reviewed; state’s success rate in invalidity/nullity actions min. 70%.
4
2026-06-11 — Parliamentary investigation committee on GVH and Prosecutor General
High
Delayed
Investigation committee established within 30 days; first public report by 1 September 2026; institutional independence index methodology by 12 July 2026.
42
2027-06-30 — Frozen + recovered assets: HUF 50-150 bn
High
Active
NAV audit; OLAF precedent-based minimum result for the new government’s first year.
43
2027-06-30 — Hungarian WGI control of corruption: -0.17 → ≥0
Medium
Active
World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators; combined effect of EPPO + AMLD + recovery. Interim: 2027 +0.1 (to -0.07), 2028 above +0.15; WGI Control of Corruption +15-20 percentile by 2028.
74
2027-07-07 — Annual public rule-of-law audit of asset-recovery proceedings
Low
Active
Watch whether an annual public rule-of-law audit operates: how many cases were opened, how much pre-trial detention was proportionately justified, and in how many cases courts ultimately convicted or acquitted.
86
2027-07-12 — Performance-based funding with a clawback mechanism
Low
Active
Within 12 months every substantive sports grant should tie to a measurable target indicator, with proportional clawback of unmet funding. A good sign is the clawback existing not just on paper but being applied and documented.
5
2026-06-12 — Asset declaration cross-check for 16 ministers
High
Active
All 16 ministers and the state-secretary cohort cross-checked; layperson summary public; at least 3 cross-checks (property/company registry/banking).
6
2026-06-16 — NER contract bundle procedural-risk ranking
High
Active
KBH + SAO joint working group: C=M+D-A score for every HUF 500 M+ contract; 70+ as immediate priority; cases above 70 points transferred to EPPO/Prosecutor General by 16 July 2026.
88
2027-12-31 — Over 90% of grants with a public record sheet
Low
Active
The proposed KPI targets over 90% of all state sports funding having a public, itemised record sheet by 2027. A good sign is the share rising markedly from today’s state, where data only surfaces via information requests.
84
2029-07-11 — Cutting single-bid procurement below 15%
Low
Active
Watch whether the share of single-bid procurement falls from about 30% to below 15% within three years, aided by an AI anomaly detector. Fulfilled when the ratio measurably drops under the 15% target.
7
2026-06-26 — Independent COVID procurement investigation committee set up (60 days)
High
Active
Justice Ministry decision; 500-1000 case audit in the first 6 months.
44
2026 Q3 — Number of PEP reports monthly 200+ — banking AML activity KPI
High
Active
Monthly PEP reports to NAV (2025 baseline ~30); the 200+ threshold signals actual use of the AML toolkit.
45
Legislative cycle — Mandatory, public lobbying register
Medium
Active
Whether a mandatory, public lobbying register is introduced (who consulted whom, about what) to make trading in influence transparent; the structural-prevention pillar of the Óbuda (KNYF) investigation wave. Signal: the register’s existence and coverage.
46
Annual (KPI) — Documented methodology for the corruption-loss estimate
Low
Active
Whether a documented methodology for the corruption-loss estimate is published (base, year, margin of error), and what share of the Authority reports become substantive prosecutorial proceedings.
47
12–18 months — Automatic cross-checking and sanction for unexplained wealth growth
Medium
Active
Whether at least three machine cross-checks (property, company, income–wealth gap) are run on every asset declaration, and whether actual investigations follow unexplained wealth growth.
48
Within the legislative cycle — Legal-status guarantees for heads of independent authorities (exhaustive removal grounds)
Medium
Active
Whether a statutory rule is enacted on removing heads of independent authorities (exhaustive grounds, fixed term, judicial review), and whether the Integrity Authority investigative activity continues even while its president is under indictment.
49
12–24 months — Public, machine-queryable public-spending database (cohesion + recovery)
Low
Active
Whether the public, machine-queryable public-spending database is operational and fully covers cohesion and recovery projects.
50
Within 30 days of contract — Public winner data sheets for the HUF 540bn energy calls
High
Active
Whether the evaluation criteria of the two energy calls (HUF 540bn) are public before the application window, and whether every winner gets a public data sheet within 30 days of signing.
51
Legislative cycle — Prosecutorial accountability: a protected whistleblower channel + a quantified parliamentary report
Medium
Active
Whether a protected whistleblower channel inside the prosecution and a quantified, regular parliamentary reporting regime are created without surrendering organisational independence — the internal and external control of prosecutorial integrity.
52
Institution-building cycle — Reclaiming withdrawn public assets via judicial (not political) procedure
Medium
Active
The 16th amendment enabled reclaiming withdrawn public assets; what share of reclaimed assets is decided by a court (not an administrative/political body), and whether the fate of recovered assets is traceable on a public, itemised data sheet — otherwise the recovery becomes a mirror image of the old discretion.
53
Legislative cycle — Anomaly detector and public data sheets for cultural grants
Low
Active
Watch whether the procurement anomaly detector is extended to cultural grants (flagging recurring winner pairs, company-web payments) and decisions appear on machine-readable public data sheets. Fulfilment signal: a working detector and searchable public-fund dashboard.
54
Immediate launch — Real-time, machine-readable public-spending tracking for EU funds
High
Active
Watch whether a public, machine-readable record (beneficiary, amount, procurement, timeline) launches for every EU-funded project, with mandatory cost-benefit analysis and a clawback clause above HUF 500m.
55
90 days from Chinese approval — Budapest-Belgrade: full, machine-readable contract disclosure
High
Active
Watch whether the full loan and contractor agreements are published in structured, machine-readable form (interest, currency, return-on-investment inputs), not just excerpts. Fulfilment: 100% disclosure within 90 days of Chinese sign-off.
56
Start of next fiscal year — KEKVA: public, machine-readable university asset management
Medium
Active
Watch whether university asset-management foundations publish, in machine-readable form, managed assets, yields, transferred and withheld sums, and decision rationales (cf. Tokaj-Hegyalja HUF 1.27bn). Target: 100% from the next fiscal year.
64
Immediately (for the transitional period) — Statutory, targeted KEKVA asset freeze instead of an appeal
High
Active
Whether a statutory, itemised asset freeze replacing the prime-ministerial appeal is created — one that is legally enforceable and open to legal remedy, not merely a political call.
65
When the institution is established — National Asset Recovery Office (NVVH) with rule-of-law guarantees and judicial control
Medium
Active
Whether the law governing the NVVH mandatorily includes judicial review, property protection, the presumption of innocence and public, machine-readable disclosure of every asset measure.
66
From the next budget year — Real-time public-money dashboard and machine-readable asset declarations for state-owned companies
Low
Active
Whether real-time, machine-readable disclosure of state companies’ discretionary subsidies and board remuneration is available, and whether 100 percent of public-life asset declarations are in machine-readable, cross-checked format.
67
12-18 month cycle — Open competitive tendering of future infrastructure projects and mandatory ex post review
Low
Active
Whether future concessions and road builds are put out to open, competitive tender (comply-or-explain principle), with a 12-18 month re-measurement of the expected outcome fixed before the contract.
68
Immediate — Full public-funds transparency for asset-managing foundations
High
Active
Track whether state-funded foundations publish the grants they receive and how the money is spent in real time, in machine-readable form. A searchable public record is the sign it has been delivered.
69
2026 — Public, machine-readable board asset declarations and pay
Medium
Active
Watch whether trustees’ and executives’ asset declarations become available as comparable data rather than PDFs, and whether leadership pay is disclosed.
70
2026–2027 — Pre-set, uniform conflict-of-interest and cooling-off rules
Low
Active
A good sign is the adoption of a uniform, pre-set conflict-of-interest regime for every publicly funded foundation, including a mandatory cooling-off gap between state and foundation leadership roles.
75
Ongoing (from first drawdown) — Every EU-funded project into a public, searchable database
Medium
Active
Track whether every EU-funded project launches with a public, machine-readable data sheet (beneficiary, amount, purpose, deadline, procurement, status) and whether the irregularity rate falls. The target is 100% project disclosure.
77
Ongoing — Rule-based, judicially reviewable asset restructuring
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when every leadership change and asset decision rests on documented, individualized grounds and everyone affected has a right to appeal. Hands-on, discretionary restructuring with decisions successfully challenged is the bad sign.
78
2026–2028 — Independent anti-corruption authority and mandatory official rotation
Low
Active
Fulfilled when corruption-prone areas (procurement, permitting) get mandatory five-year rotation and pre-appointment integrity checks, and a politically independent authority can investigate unexplained wealth. Signal: the corruption-control indicator actually improving.
87
12–18 months — Criteria-based media-rights and cross-border funding framework
Low
Active
Within 12-18 months, media-rights fees and cross-border sports funding should be decided by pre-set public criteria with grant-based accounting. A good sign is cross-border payments no longer vanishing into items ranging from stationery to pastries.
5. Budgetary and economic milestones
The budgetary cluster’s logic is about managing the gap between inherited obligations and new promises, and this week a confidence window opened: the MNB held the base rate at 6.5%, the forint strengthened below 380 EUR/HUF, there was record demand at government-securities auctions, and the market prices in a cut from June. This is double-edged, however: S&P affirmed the rating, but the negative outlook and the excessive-deficit procedure remain, this year’s budget is short HUF 286bn, and the deficit stood at 91% at the end of April. The decisive measurement point is therefore not the cut itself, but whether the savings are used counter-cyclically — for debt reduction, not new spending. The sub-4.5% deficit target, the structural wealth tax, the return of KATA with an employment test, and the coverage-disclosure obligation all sit on the same axis: market confidence holds only on a durable, credible consolidation path. This week the cluster gained two new, directly household-facing measurement points: the 30 September 2026 phase-out of the rate cap — where the benchmark is the decile-level impact assessment and a targeted safety net for the 19,000 vulnerable debtors — and the settlement-level, target-indicator tracking of the released EU funds, so the money also reaches the most disadvantaged districts. This week the confidence window opened further: the forint strengthened below 350 EUR/HUF on the back of the US–Iran deal, the market fuel price fell below the protected level on 19 June 2026 (parliament may vote on the phase-out next week), and an MNB rate cut moved onto the agenda — the benchmark unchanged: that the savings go to debt reduction, not new spending, and that the wealth tax be born in a constitutionally defensible, predictable model. This week Parliament voted, under an exceptional procedure, to phase out the protected fuel price (the regulated price lapsed on 27 June — see Closed measurement points), making the legal framework for targeted, automatic energy-price compensation the next benchmark; and the MNB’s rate cut opened a new risk: without macroprudential brakes (tighter LTV/DSTI, a public overvaluation index) and supply expansion, housing-market overheating could feed a bubble. This week the cluster widened to data credibility and implementation cost: the KSH data scandal (an independent data-quality council) bears directly on the credibility of the record deficit and the euro path — without reliable data the fiscal targets cannot be verified — while for the county renaming the benchmark is a mandatory ex ante implementation impact assessment. Publishing the budget audit (7.5% deficit, ~HUF 400bn of hidden spending) already completed two points and opened a new series: zero-based correction, a rule-based debt ceiling, MNB independence and the impact-assessed phase-out of special taxes (MOL windfall, banded levy) together decide whether exposing the hidden deficit stays a one-off finding or becomes lasting, data-driven fiscal discipline.
1
2026-06-01 — Automotive job stabilisation package (Kurzarbeit, max 12 months)
High
Active
Short-time work support (60-70% of net pay) due to Trump’s 25% EU auto tariff in Győr-Moson-Sopron, Komárom-Esztergom, Bács-Kiskun, Hajdú-Bihar counties; SURE-model based.
2
2026-06-08 — Immediate spending moratorium and zero-base expenditure review
High
Delayed
Every ministry and independent chapter submits a zero-base expenditure review within 60 days; reaching 32% chapter-managed-appropriations Q1 burn rate avoided.
4
2026-06-30 — Start of the MNB rate-cutting cycle in the confidence window
Medium
Active
The MNB holds the base rate at 6.5%; the market prices in 4×25 bp of cuts, with the first cut possible from June. To watch: the June inflation report and the first actual cut — a test of how durable the forint’s strengthening (below 380 EUR/HUF) and the record demand for government securities prove to be.
5
2026-07-05 — Fiscal priority matrix and Fiscal Council restart
High
Active
Monthly independent fiscal opinion; SGP compatibility; assessment of the fiscal manoeuvring room for Tisza program measures; IFI 90-day rule-based operation.
6
2026-07-07 — Automotive diversification package — export-focused investment support
High
Active
Concessional loans, state guarantees for Hungarian tier-1 suppliers to non-EU-US markets (UK, Turkey, ASEAN, India); labour-market buffer fund 1% of GDP (~HUF 700 bn) set aside by 5 September 2026.
7
2026-07-18 — Budget inquiry committee on the HUF 286 bn item
Medium
Active
Independent parliamentary inquiry committee for the expert audit of the HUF 286 bn item not booked into the 2024-2026 budget deficit and for uncovering the ESA-2010 evasion channels (within 60 days).
8
2026-07-31 — Drucker audit first report
High
Active
Independent expert panel (5-7 members) report on min. HUF 1 bn+ expenditure items with red/amber/green categorisation.
10
2026-08-21 — Automotive contingency strategy published (3 scenarios)
Medium
Active
The Economy Ministry publicly publishes its contingency strategy broken into three scenarios (free trade / 10-15% tariff / 25% punitive tariff) with quantitative impact calculation.
44
2026-09-29 — Independent data-quality council alongside the KSH (90 days)
Medium
Active
Whether the independent data-quality council is set up, and for how many key indicators (income, poverty, inflation, employment) it conducts a methodological review before publication, with a duty to give reasons.
60
2026-08-31 — August adjustment via zero-based, targeted spending review
Medium
Active
Fulfilled if the August adjustment the finance minister flagged starts from a zero-based review and the cuts fall mainly on wasteful rather than social items. Blanket, across-the-board trimming is the bad sign.
67
2026-08-31 — Meeting the RRF payment deadline without losing funds
Medium
Active
Watch whether the freed recovery funds are drawn down by the tight payment deadline, financing well-prepared, output-oriented projects without losing money. Fulfilled if the drawdown lands on time with quality projects.
11
2026-09-30 — Targeted safety net for the 19,000 vulnerable debtors at phase-out
High
Active
Whether a statutory, claimable targeted programme is in place for the 19,000 vulnerable debtors at the 30 September phase-out; target: at least 80% receive a claimable offer.
12
2026-09-30 — Independent Fiscal Council operational
High
Active
IMF IFI-standard 90-day rule-based operation; first quarterly report.
13
2026-10-01 — 2027 budget draft before the National Assembly
High
Active
First reading; wealth-tax package and Drucker audit result quantified; annual deficit at 4.5% of GDP by year-end.
14
2026-11-01 — Baby-loan grace period and instalment alternative for the 24,700 affected
Medium
Active
At the baby-loan childbearing deadline extended to 1 November, how many contracts meet the condition and how many families face lump-sum repayment; whether an instalment alternative opens.
15
2026-11-30 — Sectoral narrowing of the food margin cap
Medium
Active
Only a basic-food basket (bread, milk, eggs, margarine, sugar, flour); rest market-priced.
45
2026-12-31 — Public account of how the flawed EU-SILC income indicators arose
Medium
Active
Whether a detailed, public account of how the flawed income and poverty indicators arose is published by end-2026, and whether the flawed data are withdrawn from the Eurostat database by then.
16
2026-12-31 — Euro-convergence parliamentary oversight committee (9 members)
Medium
Active
3 MNB + 3 PM + 3 independent economists (two-thirds parliament vote); quarterly convergence report; deficit path 2026: 4.5-5.0%, 2027: 3.5-4.0%, 2028: below 3.0%.
17
2027-01-01 — Structural wealth tax introduced
High
Active
Progressive (0.5%/1%/1.5%) wealth tax on net assets above HUF 500 M takes effect; NAV-led machine-readable asset register; top 1% supplying at least 80% of revenue.
18
2027-01-01 — Return of kata with an employment test
High
Active
HUF 18 M annual revenue cap; max 50% from one client; NAV revision audit; kata employment-test methodology by 1 September 2026.
19
2027-03-31 — Investment quota above 5.5% of GDP
Medium
Active
Government investment as a share of GDP (Eurostat ESA10) above 5.5% by Q1 2027.
20
2027-04-28 — Universal child benefit fiscal impact assessment (Drucker audit)
High
Active
EUROMOD-based microsimulation impact assessment (NAV+KSH data join) of HUF 50 000/month universal child transfer; bottom three income deciles access ≥95% (vs. <50% for doubled family allowance).
21
2027-04-30 — Forint risk premium <100 bp vs. Czech-Polish
Medium
Active
Hungarian sovereign yield spread vs. Czech-Polish: from 200-250 bp → below 100 bp; 10-year HU-DE yield spread min. 80 bp lower within one year; CDS spread -30 bp by 2028.
22
2027-05-31 — Counter-cyclical use of the confidence window — debt reduction, not new spending
Medium
Active
Whether the savings from the stronger forint and lower spreads go to debt and deficit reduction rather than new spending; KPI: the 10-year government-bond spread stays durably low versus German and regional peers (amid the S&P negative outlook and the excessive-deficit procedure).
23
2027-12-31 — General government deficit < 4.5% of GDP
High
Active
From the 2026 ~6.8% state; fiscal consolidation path.
63
2027-06-30 — Public rent-seeking audit of the energy sector
Low
Active
Watch whether the government commissions a public energy-sector rent audit mapping which regulatory features generate rents for whom. Fulfilled when the findings reach parliament to underpin a rules-based windfall-tax mechanism.
24
2028-12-31 — New social rental units per year — 2027: 5 000, 2028: 10 000
Medium
Active
New municipal/state social rental units registered on the housing data platform (EP2) annually; Otthon Start supply expansion instead of demand stimulation.
25
2028-12-31 — EEA fund (HUF 91.8 bn) commitment rate ≥70%
Low
Active
Previous cycle’s utilisation rate: ~75% — that is the reference.
26
August 2026 — Targeting filter for the back-to-school benefit
Medium
Active
Whether the August back-to-school benefit gets an income/life-situation targeting filter, while eligibility remains automatic (without separate application) for the poorest households.
27
May 2027 — Fulfilment of the 2% GDP-growth commitment
Medium
Active
Whether the 2% GDP growth committed by the PM is achieved within one year, per KSH quarterly data.
9
2026-08-17 — Mandatory quarterly ESA-2010 budget disclosure
Medium
Active
The PM publishes a machine-readable ESA-2010 disclosure quarterly (within 30 days of quarter-end): commitments, off-balance-sheet consolidation, explanation of deviations above 5%.
46
2027-07-03 — Launch of a zero-base expenditure review (12 months)
Low
Active
Whether a zero-base review of larger budget items, working on the principle of organised discontinuation, is launched, with a mandatory re-measurement within 18 months for items above HUF 50 bn (Drucker audit).
28
Autumn 2026 — Funding-disclosure obligation for every new transfer
Medium
Active
Every new/expanded benefit (back-to-school, pensioner support, pensioner SZÉP card, income-tax relief) gets an itemised, public funding disclosure on the public-money map; the savings from the public-sector pay cut as a separate, trackable item.
29
2026 Q3-Q4 + 2027 Q1 — Three-step phase-out of the interest rate cap
High
Active
Partial → medium → full phase-out; targeted housing loan support for the bottom 30%.
30
Day of bill submission — EUROMOD-compatible income-tax microsimulation model
High
Active
Public, run by NAV’s independent research unit — precondition of the funding debate.
31
2027 Q1 — 1-year government bond yield <6%
Medium
Active
Signal of improving market confidence; falling budget financing cost.
32
H2 2027 — House-price growth in mid-sized cities below inflation+2pp
Medium
Active
Mid-city house-price index monthly change vs. KSH inflation; the overheating risk gauge of the Otthon Start program.
33
Quarterly — EUR 16.4bn absorption tracking + public public-money dashboard
Medium
Active
Quarterly substantive progress reported on the unfrozen EUR 16.4bn envelope (projects approaching contracting, actual disbursement, bottlenecks), with a real-time, machine-readable public interface (beneficiary, amount, procurement ID, drawdown status). Risk: the government itself flagged that ~HUF 800 bn of support was lost earlier — whether a recurrence can be structurally ruled out.
34
Annual review — Conditional, performance-linked, audited investment incentives
Medium
Active
Whether state investment incentives are tied to measurable commitments (local-supplier share, R&D content, export integration, net employment), time-limited, with an annual public review and clawback on non-performance — drawing on the lesson of the battery-industry exposure (the halted CATL expansion).
35
Announced, in progress — Full, public review of the Budapest–Belgrade railway line
Medium
Active
Whether the announced public review takes place, and whether the order of rail development is decided by passenger-traffic / passenger-km data rather than political bargaining.
36
12–24 months — Irregularity rate of EU-fund absorption (Estonian 0.5% benchmark)
Low
Active
Whether the irregularity rate of EU-funded projects falls towards the 0.5% Estonian benchmark, and whether a machine-readable public spending database is operational.
37
Before final vote — Public, decile-level impact assessment for the rate-cap phase-out
Medium
Active
Whether the government publishes the distribution of instalment increases across the 216,000 affected contracts by income decile, loan-size band and maturity (a distribution, not an average) before the final vote.
38
Continuous from disbursement — Public, settlement-level fund map with target indicators
Medium
Active
Whether the government publishes, in machine-readable settlement-level form, where each forint of the released funds goes, and whether every large project has a pre-set, accountable target indicator.
39
Before the first disbursement round — Absorption-capacity programme for the most disadvantaged districts
Medium
Active
Whether, before the first disbursement round, the most disadvantaged districts get free grant/project-management mentoring and a pre-financing bridge, so funds do not get stuck in better-off regions.
40
Legislative preparation — A constitutionally defensible, predictable wealth-tax model
Medium
Active
Whether the introduced wealth tax is built with a high threshold, a moderate (non-confiscatory) rate and pre-set rules; how many constitutional/legal objections arise, and whether actual revenue approaches the planned figure — the precondition for the structural wealth tax’s constitutional durability.
41
Immediate — Activate macroprudential brakes and publish an overvaluation index
High
Active
Watch whether the central bank actively deploys loan-to-value and debt-service caps alongside rate cuts and launches a quarterly public housing overvaluation index by region. Falling overvaluation from ~22.5% signals progress.
42
12–24 months — Expand housing supply via a public construction data platform
Medium
Active
Watch whether a public platform mapping permits, developments and rental stock by settlement is set up, and whether issued building permits and completed new homes rise meaningfully.
43
Legislative cycle — Prepare legal framework for targeted, automatic energy price compensation
Medium
Active
Watch whether a targeted, income-proportional and automatic energy-price compensation framework emerges instead of a universal price cap. Fulfilment: codification of a time-limited, targeted support mechanism.
47
Q4 2026 — Public KSH error log and correction protocol
Medium
Active
Whether a public error log is available that records the origin, detection and correction of every data error, and whether the turnaround time of corrections, from detection to fix, falls.
48
2027-2028 — General government deficit below 5% by 2027, near 3% by 2028 without austerity
Low
Active
Whether the GDP-proportionate deficit (currently above 8% without EU funds) falls to the target path without cutting essential services, and whether a realistic euro-accession timetable emerges.
49
2027 budget — Fixed debt-sustainability framework and automatic fiscal brake
Low
Active
Whether an annual public debt report, an early-warning system and an automatic fiscal brake tied to a debt threshold are introduced, balanced by a counter-cyclical stabiliser.
50
Concurrent with the legislative amendment — Mandatory ex ante implementation impact assessment for the county renaming
Medium
Active
Whether a proportionate, itemised implementation impact assessment and public cost estimate (affected signs, stamps, IT systems, real price, lead time) is produced concurrently with the legislative amendment restoring the county name.
51
12-18 months — Ex post public accounting of the actual implementation cost of the county-name restoration
Low
Active
Whether the aggregate actual cost of the sign replacement (est. ~HUF 50 M), stamps and IT systems is disclosed, and how far it deviates from the prior estimate (target: ±15 percent).
52
Immediate — Central-bank independence and clean fiscal-monetary division of labour
High
Active
Watch whether the government refrains from overt or covert pressure on the rate path and stops claiming credit for the favourable inflation turn. The Monetary Council deciding on its own is the marker.
53
2026–2027 — Rule-based, countercyclical consolidation instead of austerity
Low
Active
Track whether the freed-up fiscal space goes toward cutting the debt path and rebuilding buffers rather than new permanent spending, and whether the primary balance improves.
54
2026–2028 — Phased, impact-assessed wind-down of special taxes
Low
Active
A good sign is a pre-announced, multi-step schedule for phasing out special taxes with a mandatory impact assessment before each step. Quietly introducing a new special tax mid-year is a bad sign.
55
With the MFB act amendment — MFB as a politically independent, audited EU-fund manager
Medium
Active
A good sign is half of MFB’s governing board being independent experts with fixed mandates, a public balance sheet, an independent audit, and parliament holding genuine oversight of the bank’s EU-fund management.
56
12–18-month review cycle (2027–2028) — Green-digital conditionality with ex-post impact review
Low
Active
Watch whether EU funds are tied to measurable green and digital targets, whether expected versus actual results are compared after 12-18 months, and whether a clawback mechanism applies to underperforming projects.
57
2027 — Rule-based debt-sustainability framework (G23) in place
Low
Active
Fulfilled once an annual public debt-sustainability report is published and an automatic fiscal brake tied to a debt/GDP threshold takes effect. Signal: a published, numeric threshold plus an early-warning system.
58
2026–2028 — Anticyclical consolidation: primary balance improving year on year
Low
Active
A good sign is a primary balance (excluding interest) improving each year as a share of GDP, with debt-to-GDP turning downward and no new permanent spending commitments. A sudden procyclical austerity package is the bad sign.
59
2026–2028 — Pre-set ceiling on the FX share of public debt
Low
Active
Fulfilled when a ceiling on the FX-debt share of total public debt is announced and the spread on subsequent issuances narrows versus the current midswap +80 / +125 bps. Signal: machine-readable disclosure of every issuance’s terms.
61
2026 — Turning the audit into a permanent, machine-readable open budget
Low
Active
Fulfilled if the one-off audit becomes a real-time, public, machine-readable budget (open data standard) that also exposes revenue assumptions. Signal: the count of later-discovered hidden outlays falling to zero.
62
2026–2028 — Fixed debt limit, fiscal brake and independent revenue validation
Low
Active
Fulfilled when breaching a statutory debt threshold triggers an automatic, pre-announced spending cap and an independent fiscal institution vets revenue plans in advance. Signal: uncollectable revenue can no longer enter the budget.
64
Annual (first release) — Public annual euro-readiness scorecard
Medium
Active
Watch whether an annually refreshed public euro-readiness scorecard is produced, quantifying Hungary’s convergence across four dimensions: HICP inflation, deficit and debt path, and exchange-rate and interest-rate stability. Fulfilled when the first edition appears with figures in every dimension.
65
Ongoing — Maintaining foreign-reserve adequacy
Medium
Active
Watch whether foreign reserves stay at a level satisfying the Guidotti-Greenspan rule, covering at least the external debt maturing within a year. Fulfilled if reserves do not fall below that threshold from their record high.
66
Ongoing — Keeping public debt on a sub-70% path
Low
Active
Watch whether the debt-to-GDP path is stable or falling, within the sub-70% band targeted by the sustainability framework. Fulfilled if the debt ratio durably trends toward that band.
68
2030 — Absorbing at least 95% of the opened envelope
Low
Active
Watch whether the country absorbs at least 95% of the opened EU envelope by the relevant deadlines under the n+3 rule, without losing funds. Fulfilled when the absorption rate reaches 95%.
6. Energy security and diversification
This is the longest-horizon cluster among the core sections (2028-2032), yet it also contains the shortest-reaction-time measurement point: in case of Hormuz closure, the six-week European kerosene window means a strategic decision (LNG-Krk + Adria + OMV framework) must be triggerable within hours. The new blogs (6 May — Hormuz escalation + UAE attack, 10 May — MOL strategic fuel reserve + competition policy, 15 May — 575 million litre fuel reserve + 91% capacity) layered three operational measurement points on top: a strategic oil reserve transparency act with monthly reporting (5 July 2026), the REPowerEU II accession package (4 August 2026), and a 12-month phased exit of the fuel price cap (expiry: 9 May 2027). The publication of the strategic energy reserve inventory (original deadline: 1 May 2026) remains delayed — expected after the Pósfai ministry becomes operational, but the MOL reserve (575 million litres, ~91%) and the FX reserve peak (EUR 60 bn) jointly serve as a buffer. This week’s incoming blogs took diversification down to concrete instrument level: the transparency package for the OFAC-licensed Serbian NIS acquisition (MOL), the JANAF (Adria pipeline) capacity-expansion talks and MOL Százhalombatta’s non-Russian conversion schedule together map out how the Druzhba import share can be cut from the 2025 ~58% to ≤25% by 2028. The transitional social cost of that is covered by the household energy-price buffer package (SAO-audited Druzhba price cap + targeted heating support) — so the price of diversification does not fall on the poorest households. This week the summer demand peak (about 7300 MW) and the Paks curtailment together made clear that the energy-storage reserve is at once a climate-adaptation and a supply-security question: an output drop during the cooling peak must not turn into a supply risk. After the Hormuz crisis the 90-day gas reserve, source and route diversification, and an automatic price-shock compensation threshold link into a single resilience system: the reserve alone buys time, but without diversification the next blockade causes the same price shock — the real test is the three points being met together.
1
2026-05-01 — Publication of strategic energy reserve inventory
High
Delayed
Crude oil, kerosene, natural gas in import equivalents; weekly refresh. Slippage: the conversion of the reserve (575 million litres) is in progress, but no formal inventory publication has occurred even after the Pósfai ministry became operational.
2
2026-06-17 — Active EU position document on energy-crisis legislation
High
Active
Max 4-page Foreign Ministry–Planning Minister position (mandatory EU joint procurement, income-sensitive support, CEE automotive Energy-Resilience package) ahead of the 26-27 June 2026 EU Council.
3
2026-07-05 — Strategic oil reserve transparency act with monthly reporting
High
Active
Monthly fuel-day-equivalent report on MSZKSZ website; below 60 days automatic parliamentary notification; transparent reserve regulation framework within 180 days.
4
2026-07-24 — Publication of a two-outcome (peace/shock) energy-price scenario analysis
Medium
Active
The Planning and Finance Ministries publish a public two-outcome scenario analysis (durable peace vs. a renewed energy-price shock) quantifying inflationary and budgetary impact — the basis for resilience planning after the May 2026 reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
5
2026-08-04 — REPowerEU II accession package
High
Active
LNG capacity sharing with Croatia and Greece; gas solidarity agreements with Slovakia, Austria, Romania; Hungarian formal participation within 90 days; V4 + Austria mutual reserve agreement within 180 days.
6
2026-08-20 — JANAF (Adria pipeline) capacity-expansion talks begin
Medium
Active
The Economic Development + Foreign Ministry negotiating mandate to raise JANAF’s Hungary-bound capacity (~10 Mt/yr → 14-16 Mt/yr by 2028); talks starting within 3 months.
7
2026-08-31 — Transparent, corruption-free wind tender (first 700 MW round)
High
Active
Watch whether the competitive 700 MW tender is actually launched by 31 August and whether its terms, winners and contract prices are published and trackable in real time on an open platform.
8
2026-09-21 — Phased 90-day exit schedule for the protected fuel price
Medium
Active
Watch whether the regulated price converges to market levels via a pre-announced 60-90 day stepped schedule instead of a sudden fast-track removal. Fulfilment signal: predictable, gradual price moves rather than a one-off jump.
9
2026-09-21 — Competition-neutral bridge support for independent small fuel stations
Medium
Active
Watch whether independent stations receive competition-neutral bridge measures (liquidity credit line, non-discriminatory supply) instead of mass closures. Fulfilment signal: no rise in large-network market concentration after the phase-out.
10
2026-09-30 — Strategic crude reserve: 75 → 90 days
High
Active
MÉH coordination; IEA 90-day target restored; gas-storage fill >90% (autumn start).
11
2026-10-18 — Diversification timetable published
Medium
Active
LNG-Krk, Adria pipeline, Danube refinery Ural-dependency reduction; concrete schedule.
12
2026-11-11 — Gradual phase-out of the protected fuel price
High
Active
6-month orderly phase-out with monthly price steps, targeted compensation (bottom 2 income deciles HUF 5-12 000/month + professional sector); GVH+MEKH joint HHI-based market concentration monitoring.
13
2026-11-22 — MOL Százhalombatta technical conversion schedule
Medium
Active
The government + MOL phased non-Russian crude conversion schedule (CPC-Blend / brent / Libyan-Algerian), with 60-day accelerated environmental permitting; EUR 250-450 M CAPEX; framework talks within 6 months.
14
2026-11-22 — Household energy-price buffer package (Druzhba-conversion price cap)
Medium
Active
Temporary, SAO-audited Druzhba-conversion price cap (max 18 months) + targeted heating support (~HUF 30k/month, 200k households, ~HUF 30 bn/year); phase-out 31 March 2028.
15
2027-05-09 — Fuel price-cap expiration date observed
High
Active
Binary indicator: did the cap (and de facto price accord) end on 9 May 2027, or was it extended? Fuel market HHI below 2500 by end 2027.
16
2028-04-18 — Russian Urals crude share <40%
Low
Active
Measured at MOL refinery input; 2025 baseline: ~60%.
17
2028-05-15 — Strategic fuel reserve at 90-day level
High
Active
The released 575 million litre refill schedule over 24 months; 90-day import equivalent reached.
18
2028-12-31 — Druzhba import share ≤25%
Low
Active
The Russian crude import share falls from the 2025 ~58% to ≤25% by 2028 (28 pp); based on MEKH time series and JANAF capacity reporting.
19
2032-04-18 — Russian crude share <20%
Low
Active
Long-term diversification target; depends on LNG infrastructure capacity.
20
By the heating season / 12–24 months — Targeted energy compensation + transparent price-cap phase-out timetable
Medium
Active
As a condition of the unfrozen EUR 16.4bn, the EU asks for the phase-out of the utility cuts / price cap (including the protected fuel price). MIAK benchmark: whether, instead of the general price cap, an income-proportionate transfer targeted to the lowest income deciles and a phased phase-out timetable with pre-announced expiry dates is created. Indicator: energy-support spending as a share of GDP, on a falling path.
21
Review framework — Public, quantified Paks-2 decision criteria + due diligence
Medium
Active
Following Rosatom’s 5 June 2026 letter, whether the government decides on continuation/modification on the basis of a pre-fixed, public, four-factor criteria set (lifetime cost, supplier dependency, supply security, climate-target fit), and whether it makes the findings of the independent due diligence public (except for classified business/national-security data).
22
Immediate activation — Shock-preparedness checklist — 90-day gas reserve, 48-hour compensation
High
Active
Whether the government publicly itemises the strategic reserve (target: a 90-day gas reserve), and whether consumer compensation can be activated within 48 hours of a price spike.
23
By 2030 (parallel with investment) — Align grid and storage build-out with wind capacity
Medium
Active
Watch whether the EUR 1.5bn grid upgrade and HUF 480bn integration programme are scheduled in step with the wind tenders, and whether energy-storage capacity is built alongside.
24
Annual KPI (tracked through 2028) — Annual 200-500 MW energy storage expansion to cover heat peaks
Low
Active
Watch whether annual storage expansion reaches the proposed 200-500 MW band so the evening cooling peak (duck curve) can be managed via storage. Fulfilment: measurable yearly growth from the current ~50 MW.
25
Multi-year — Expand energy-storage capacity to cover the summer peak (about 7300 MW)
Low
Active
Whether energy-storage capacity grows enough to cover the summer demand peak with a reserve, so that an output drop like the Paks curtailment does not create a supply risk.
26
2029 — Building a strategic gas reserve of at least 90 days
Low
Active
Fulfilled when the emergency gas reserve reaches at least 90 days of consumption. Signal: published reserve-level data staying consistently above the threshold.
27
2030 — Source and route diversification, cutting import dependence
Low
Active
A good sign is a falling share for the single largest supplier in energy imports alongside a rising domestic renewables share. Continued reliance on one source and one route is the bad sign.
28
2026–2029 — Automatic, threshold-triggered price-shock compensation mechanism
Low
Active
Fulfilled when a pre-defined price-shock threshold is set that automatically triggers targeted, temporary compensation without discretion. Signal: a published threshold and a built-in phase-out rule.
7. Media freedom and press independence
Media-freedom indicators are slow-moving annual indices on their own, so this week the institutional-legal groundwork accelerated: MTVA director-general Papp Dániel resigned on 5 June 2026, and on 12 June 2026 the Tisza group submitted the bill on the complete overhaul of public media (MTVA) — abolition of MTVA, an Independent Public Media Board, a Press Fund (the submission is a closed measurement point). This is where genuine reform parts ways with a mere changing of the guard: the stake is not the change of leadership but whether the law delivers a party-balance-independent, pluralist supervisory body, multi-year funding tied to a statutory formula and protected editorial autonomy — or merely flips the political sign. The budget commissioner assigned to public media and to the NMHH is a parallel test (financial powers only vs. broader scope), and the NMHH’s EMFA-compliant autonomy is the legal limit. The political independence of the curatorium (10 of 15 non-political) and open competitive leadership selection remain the most usable interim benchmark until the trust and pluralism indices feed back in late 2027. This week Mediaworks announced the closure of Bors, Ripost and Metropol (around 180–200 redundancies), making an annual, segment-by-segment HHI measurement of media concentration and bringing the TV-market HHI below 2500 the tangible interim benchmarks of pluralism. This week the new media law entered into force (27 June 2026 — see Closed measurement points): a limited-powers interim leadership took over the public media, so the benchmark is now a public fixing of the interim leadership’s remit (no editorial or staffing decisions), a politically neutral, broad-consensus composition of the final Independent Public Media Board instead of a 6:3 political majority, and indexed, predictable funding with impartiality indicators. The procedural integrity of the public-media overhaul is measured this week by three points: the legality review of the dismissals around the M1 shutdown, standing up an independent board within 90 days, and transparent MTVA financing — a leadership change is media pluralism only if accompanied by open selection and financial transparency, not another loyalty swap in the opposite direction.
1
2026-07-31 — Independent curatorium + open competition for public-media leadership (60 days)
High
Active
After Papp Dániel’s resignation, whether a statutory, depoliticised procedure is created — an independent, multi-actor curatorium and a public, professional-criteria leadership competition — instead of a prime-ministerial call; with an accompanying public, regular measurement of media-market concentration (using EMFA tools).
17
2026-08-08 — Impartial legality review of the dismissals
High
Active
Fulfilled when an impartial body reviews, case by case, the legality of the July dismissals and the unexplained mass suspensions, requiring documented, individualized grounds. Dismissals later overturned in court are the bad sign.
2
2026-08-25 — Media-freedom framework bill adoption (120 days)
High
Active
After the transitional regulatory period expires; depends on completion of the curatorium replacement.
18
2026-10-07 — Setting up an independent board and party-neutral appointment rules
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when public media is run not by a single government-appointed CEO but by a board chosen with a two-thirds majority, multiple nominating actors and conflict-of-interest rules. Persisting one-person control is the bad sign.
3
2026-11-27 — Preserving the NMHH’s autonomous status on a clean legal basis (EMFA compliance)
Medium
Active
The budget commissioner’s appointment must not erode the NMHH’s autonomous status; the legal basis should be clean and EMFA-compliant — otherwise an EU media-freedom risk (the NMHH itself disputes the legality of the appointment).
4
2026-12-31 — Removal of non-compliant political ads by year-end
Medium
Active
Watch whether political ads non-compliant with the new media law (hate-inciting, dignity-violating) are removed by year-end. Fulfilment signal: the actual dismantling of banned ad carriers by the deadline.
19
2026-12-31 — Transparent MTVA funding and a party-neutral editorial code
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when MTVA’s full budget and production contracts are public in machine-readable form and news editing is bound by a balance-of-coverage code. Signal: an independent media monitor measuring editorial neutrality.
5
2027-04-17 — Curatorium composition: 10/15 non-political appointments
Medium
Active
Measurable after the framework bill is implemented.
6
2027-04-17 — EU Media Pluralism Monitor political independence
Medium
Active
High → medium-low; annual EU measurement.
7
2027-05-15 — Public-media editorial-board pluralism
Medium
Active
Independent editorial board on at least 4 channels (government, parliamentary opposition, MTA, civil umbrella); RSF Press Freedom Index +20 places by 2029 vs. 2025 reference.
8
2027-06-28 — Public media: indexed funding and public impartiality metrics
Medium
Active
Watch whether funding arrives via a law-fixed, GDP-proportional automatic formula and whether quarterly public impartiality metrics appear (uncut airtime, source diversity). Fulfilment: independently maintained metrics from Q1 2027.
9
Legislative cycle — Transparent, statutory-formula-tied, multi-year public-media funding
Medium
Active
Whether the public-media budget is set for several years ahead by an objective formula fixed in law (ruling out funding withdrawal as a pressure tool), with a mandatory public impact assessment — the financial guarantee of editorial autonomy.
10
During the bill debate — A party-proof, irreversible Independent Public Media Board
Medium
Active
Whether the Independent Public Media Board composition rules out being packed by a single majority (qualified-majority election, opposition/civil quota, staggered terms), and cannot be overridden by a simple majority.
11
During the bill debate — A transparent, formula-based Press Fund instead of discretionary allocation
Medium
Active
Whether the Press Fund is allocated by a pre-set, objective, public formula and a reasoned application process, with a mandatory published beneficiary list — so allocation cannot become a lever of pressure.
12
During the Mediaworks restructuring — Social and press-freedom guarantees for the Mediaworks layoffs
Low
Active
Whether the planned 180–190-person layoff at Mediaworks runs as a fair collective procedure under the Labour Code, with statutory severance and retraining support, separated from the political dispute.
13
Within 3 years (~2029); annual measurement — Annual media-concentration (HHI) measurement + TV-market HHI below 2500
Low
Active
Whether an annual, public, segment-by-segment media-concentration (HHI) measurement is launched; whether the TV market’s HHI falls below 2500 within three years, and whether at least five independent national newsrooms operate — the pluralism benchmark after the Mediaworks wind-down (closure of Bors, Ripost, Metropol).
14
Legislative cycle — Balanced composition of the Independent Public Media Board instead of a 6:3 political majority
Medium
Active
Watch whether the nine-member Board’s political-professional ratio becomes balanced, members are elected by a two-thirds majority, and conflict-of-interest screening is mandatory. Fulfilment signal: the end of the 6:3 political majority.
15
Immediately, until interim leader is appointed — Public media: publicly fix the powers of interim leadership
High
Active
Watch whether the interim leadership’s limited powers are publicly itemized: no contracts longer than one year, no mass layoffs, no restructuring of newsrooms. Fulfilment signal: zero irreversible decisions during the transition.
16
When the final structure is established — Public media: party-neutral leader selection by broad consensus
Medium
Active
Watch whether the final public-media leader is chosen by broad parliamentary consensus (opposition veto or qualified majority), with a diverse board on cycle-independent mandates. Fulfilment: a documented process with opposition participation.
8. Cultural financing and NKA reform
The cultural-financing cluster widened this week to the question of public assets and institutional autonomy: alongside NKA reform (blind collegial jury, PEP exclusion, dashboard above HUF 5m) came the rule-of-law test of dissolving the KEKVAs — including the MCC’s founder. The stake is not the reclaiming itself but whether it proceeds by statute, in public debate, with a mandatory impact assessment and at least one academic year of transition, with the smooth academic-year start and scientific autonomy of the affected educational institutions preserved. The KEKVA asset inventory (cluster 4) and forensic vetting are a system-level precondition here: without them, reclaiming public assets could become a mirror image of the old political discretion, only with the opposite sign. The MCC disputes the dissolution and would continue as an ordinary foundation — the question of legal form is the coming weeks’ measurement point. This week the cluster widened to depoliticising higher-education KEKVA boards: the benchmark is a cycle-independent conflict-of-interest regime binding on both political sides and the public, professional selection of board members — so that the board reshuffle does not merely flip the political sign, and EU research-and-mobility funding access is restored. This week the leaked HUF 400 million NKA list sharpened the triple benchmark: replace the minister’s sole discretion with an independent, named jury, a machine-readable public-money dashboard and an ex post SAO audit — the same trio of ex ante criteria, real-time publicity and ex post control as in the anti-corruption cluster.
2
2026-08-01 — NKA blind collegial jury + 30-day publication deadline
Medium
Active
Anonymised application platform; review view automatically strips identifiers; every decision public on the public-money dashboard within 30 days. KPI: publication-deadline compliance >95% (current <60%).
3
2026-08-31 — Rule-of-law procedure for KEKVA dissolution (statute, debate, impact assessment, transition)
High
Active
The dissolution of the KEKVAs (including the MCC’s founder) should proceed by statute, in public debate, with a mandatory impact assessment and at least one full academic year of transition; non-university founders by 31 August 2026, university founders by 31 August 2027. The MCC disputes the dissolution and would continue as an ordinary foundation.
4
2026-09-01 — Smooth 2026/2027 academic-year start for the affected institutions
High
Active
At the educational institutions affected by KEKVA dissolution the academic year should start without funding interruption, preserving scientific and educational autonomy guarantees — the reclaiming of public assets should not come at the cost of provision.
5
2026-10-30 — NKA PEP exclusion rule + retrospective audit obligation
Medium
Active
PEPs excluded from future calls; 4-year look-back window on 2010-2025 NKA items; PEP share separate chapter in the SAO annual report; PEP share among awardees target <2% (currently estimated 15-20%).
6
2027-05-01 — NKA asset recovery ≥HUF 50 bn (based on final court ruling)
Medium
Active
Civil asset-recovery proceedings on 2010-2025 NKA items; Hungarian State Treasury represents; only on final court ruling. Full HUF 100-300 bn over 3-5 years.
7
2027-06-16 — A cycle-independent, mutually binding conflict-of-interest regime for boards
Medium
Active
Whether a cycle-independent conflict-of-interest rule binding on both political sides (no active politician, party leader or government official may be a university board member) is written into law, and whether it is still in force 12 months on — the durable test of depoliticising university KEKVA boards.
1
2026-07-30 — NKA structural overhaul — independent professional board + HUF 5 M+ public-money dashboard
High
Active
Tarr Zoltán cultural ministry’s tabled bill: independent professional board (professional-organisation nomination + conflict-of-interest declaration), every HUF 5 M+ NKA item on the public-money dashboard, statutory ban on parallel funding channels (concealed frame).
8
Legislative cycle — Public professional selection of board members + academic autonomy in law
Medium
Active
What share of new board members are chosen through a public, professional competition with senate participation, and whether university academic autonomy is enshrined in law — so that the board reshuffle does not merely flip the political sign.
9
Legislative cycle — Statutory cap on discretionary ministerial culture fund, data-platform allocation
Low
Active
Watch whether the share of discretionary ministerial-fund grants falls below a low statutory cap, with most funds moving to a public, jury-based application system. Fulfilment signal: a meaningful drop in the discretionary share.
10
From the next application cycle — Public application criteria and independent juries for every NKA decision
Medium
Active
Whether the minister’s sole discretion ends: every NKA grant is decided by pre-published criteria and a named independent jury with conflict-of-interest declarations (target: jury-decided share above 90%, zero grants without a written application).
11
In progress — Rule-of-law ex post audit of past NKA lists (SAO)
Medium
Active
Whether the leaked HUF 400 million and earlier sole-discretion decisions are reviewed by an independent, itemised SAO audit (prosecution if needed), documenting which items met professional standards.
12
By 2027 — Public open-data dashboard for cultural grants
Low
Active
Whether 100 percent of NKA decisions become available on a machine-readable, searchable public interface by 2027 (recipient, amount, purpose, jury reasoning), with an anomaly detector for awards above the requested sum.
9. Defence and the European defence pillar
This week the cluster received a direct NATO-member threat: on 29 May 2026 a Russian drone struck a residential house in Galați (Romania) — the first time a Russian asset caused direct injury in a NATO member — Romanian F-16s scrambled, and NATO Article 4 was raised. This turned Hungarian–Romanian joint airspace-alert cooperation and drone-detection coverage of the eastern border into an urgent measurement point. Raising defence spending as a share of GDP is not enough on its own, only if the domestic manufacturing share and regional (V4+) joint procurement also expand. The uncertainty around the May 2026 US NATO presence makes the situation double-edged: the Hungarian response is credible only if it stays regional and accountable (the Polish–Hungarian declaration of intent, the Defence Budget Dashboard) rather than relying on the US guarantee. This week the volatility around the Russia–Ukraine peace summit and the Moscow drone strike made standing up an inter-ministerial geostrategic analytical capacity and a scenario-based crisis-management protocol urgent — so that Hungarian foreign policy becomes predictive and procedurally documented rather than reactive. This week the drone financing and meeting the NATO 2% sharpened the benchmark that the defence contribution should not appear as a package deal contingent on the national position taken on other issues, but decoupled from it, as backing for alliance credibility. After the Ankara NATO summit, predictable alliance commitment (fewer vetoes), defence spending at 2.5% of GDP and a 40%+ domestic R&D share condition one another: raising the contribution without domestic industrial embedding is a mere transfer, and without principled foreign-policy predictability allied trust will not recover.
2
2026-06-13 — Carpathian security audit published
High
Active
Carpathian Hungarian community security audit in public dashboard format (within 30 days); monthly refresh; Hungarian-Ukrainian ministerial consultation 3 sessions by 13 July 2026.
3
2026-07-06 — Defence spending path to 2.5% of GDP (transparent timetable)
High
Active
2026: 2.1%, 2027: 2.2%, 2028: 2.3%, 2029: 2.4%, 2030: 2.5%; ban on NER-affiliated companies as defence intermediaries; quarterly public report.
4
2026-07-22 — Polish–Hungarian defence cooperation declaration of intent
Medium
Active
Declaration of intent jointly prepared by the Defence + Foreign Ministries: airspace defence coordination, joint exercises, procurement synergies (a regional response to Trump’s 5000-strong deployment to Poland).
5
2026-08-01 — Hungarian defence doctrine review in escalation scenarios
High
Active
Defence minister-designate Gajdos Tamás launches: Hungarian responses keyed to 5k/10k/15k/20k/25k US withdrawal thresholds in cyber defence/reservist force/strategic communications/societal resilience.
6
2026-08-12 — Air-defence modernisation timetable public
High
Active
Defence ministry’s detailed, scheduled, quantified air-defence modernisation timetable public (within 90 days); resource allocation and deployment schedule; doubling diaspora-Hungarian student scholarship quota by 1 September 2026.
7
2026-11-30 — Formalised Hungarian–Romanian joint airspace-alert cooperation
Medium
Active
After the 29 May 2026 Russian drone strike on Galați (Romania, a NATO member), whether a formalised Hungarian–Romanian joint alert and airspace-monitoring cooperation is established; KPI: whether it operates (yes/no) and the reaction time in a border incident.
8
2026-12-31 — US troop count in Germany — falling below 25k
Medium
Active
Pentagon monthly data; if it falls below 25k by year-end 2026, the 20-25k withdrawal scenario is operationalising — Hungarian doctrine escalation trigger.
9
2027-06-17 — Inter-ministerial geostrategic analytical capacity + a scenario-based crisis-management protocol
Medium
Active
Whether an inter-ministerial geostrategic analytical unit with semi-annual situation assessments is created, and whether a pre-developed, scenario-based crisis-management protocol (energy-price shock, refugee wave, regional escalation) is produced — so that Hungarian foreign policy becomes predictive and procedurally documented rather than reactive.
19
2026-12-31 — Defense procurement contract-review report
Medium
Active
Watch whether the defense ministry’s parliamentary state secretary delivers the review report on all 2022-2026 procurement and ministry contracts tied to the arms-development program. Fulfilled when the report is completed on schedule.
1
2026-06-06 — Joining the Baltic NATO Air Policing mission
Medium
Active
Hungarian Gripen contingent, Slovak-Hungarian joint rotation or V4 framework; at least one 4-month rotation from Q4 2026.
10
2027-07-01 — V4+ joint defence procurement frameworks (≥3)
High
Active
Munitions + air defence + counter-drone on a joint regional (V4+RO+HR) procurement platform; EDF Hungarian drawdown 2026-2030 cycle at least EUR 600 m; 30-50% unit-cost reduction.
17
2027-12-31 — Raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP on a set schedule
Low
Active
Track whether defence spending climbs toward 2.5% of GDP by 2027 on the proposed multi-year, pre-set path rather than as a yearly political bargaining chip.
11
2028-05-30 — Drone-detection and airspace-monitoring coverage of the eastern border
Low
Active
Full drone-detection/airspace-monitoring coverage of the critical eastern border sections within 24 months, ideally within a joint European (HV4) procurement framework — the border-defence benchmark after drone strikes on NATO members.
12
2028-12-31 — Defence Budget Dashboard public-budget share above 70%
Low
Active
A public Defence Budget Dashboard; the publicly accessible share of the budget rising from ~30% to above 70% (procurement contracts, NATO capability targets made visible); productive-investment share above 40%.
13
2030-12-31 — Defence spending GDP share: 2.5% (2027), 3-3.5% (2030)
Medium
Active
Per NATO-standard annual report; given Pentagon-documented arms shortages, the upper band is more realistic; Poland’s 4.7% reference point.
14
2030-12-31 — Domestic defence production share ≥40%
Medium
Active
Share of domestic production in Hungarian defence procurement; 2026 baseline reviewed and locked; defence R&D 12-15% of total R&D by 2030.
15
Ongoing (annual audit) — Predictable delivery of the Hungarian defence (NATO 2%) commitment independent of the national position
Medium
Active
Whether the defence contribution (drone financing, NATO 2%) is decoupled from the national position taken on other issues — that is, does not appear as a package deal that erodes alliance credibility.
16
Immediate — Predictable alliance commitment, fewer vetoes and blockages
High
Active
Watch whether Hungary’s vetoes and blockages in joint EU and NATO decisions decline, and whether Hungary stays a reliable, predictable ally on the decisive questions.
18
2026–2030 — 40%+ domestic R&D and production share in defence spending growth
Low
Active
A good sign is the domestic R&D and manufacturing share of defence spending growth reaching 40%, meaning the money flows into home-grown development and jobs rather than pure imports.
10. Climate adaptation and water management
The 3 May 2026 drought blog (Magyar Péter action plan, driest April since 1901) and the 17 May 2026 Kelemen Ágnes (water and climate-policy state-secretary) blog together establish that drought is a structural economic factor, not a weather anomaly. The response has four layers: 60-day emergency relief (HUF 25-30 bn, 45-day payout, 60% payout ratio by 17 November 2026) → 12-month national catchment-basin status report + three-phase drought protocol → 24-36 month NKACT-2030 (UK Climate Change Act 2008 model) + irrigation infrastructure expansion EUR 2.5-3.5 bn from EU funds → agricultural insurance reform (mandatory base insurance for 50 ha+). The CAP Pillar II ≥25% climate reallocation (~EUR 625 m) is the funding background; the National Agro-Sensor Network is the data foundation; groundwater monitoring is the control layer. If any layer lags, the drought-relief median day (currently 8-14 months) will not fall below 45 days, and irrigation capacity (100k ha → 250k ha by 2028) cannot be met. This week the red heat alert made it urgent that heat-resilient hospital and rail infrastructure, together with a pre-published, quantified cross-sector heat protocol, replace ad hoc prime-ministerial announcements — linking climate adaptation to healthcare and transport supply security. After the drought and record heatwave, the national water-retention programme, a heat-alert protocol to be drafted within six months, and an enforceable climate act plus drought-damage insurance form an adaptation chain: water retention addresses the structural cause, the heat alert is acute life protection, and the climate act is the legal guarantee that binds both into a mandatory, measurable framework.
1
2026-06-16 — National catchment-basin status report + drought protocol
High
Active
Catchment-broken status report (groundwater levels, surface reserves, irrigation capacity); three-phase drought protocol (yellow/orange/red) (within 30 days).
2
2026-07-02 — Drought — emergency relief fund (HUF 25-30 bn, 45-day payout)
High
Active
Tisza government supplementary relief frame for HUF 30 bn vineyard frost damage; 45-day payout cycle; simplified form (KI12). Median-day KPI: 8-14 months → <45 days by end 2027; water/drought coordination commissioner (18 months).
3
2026-08-15 — Irrigation infrastructure expansion timetable from EU funds
High
Active
EUR 2.5-3.5 bn scheduled water-management / irrigation infrastructure (within 90 days); irrigation capacity 100→250k ha by 2028.
4
2026-10-31 — Irrigation water capacity 120k ha at 2026 autumn sowing
High
Active
Realistically available irrigation water at 2026 autumn sowing min. 120k ha (current 100k); 5k farmers relief channel within 6 months.
5
2026-11-13 — Agricultural insurance reform — mandatory base insurance
Medium
Active
50 ha+ mandatory base insurance (drought, frost, hail) + state catastrophe-risk pool (within 180 days); insurance penetration to 75% by 2028 (current 40%).
6
2026-11-17 — 2026 drought relief fund payout ratio 60%
High
Active
Paid amount / reported damage claims ratio min. 60% within 6 months; below 40% the implementation capacity must be reconsidered.
7
2026-12-31 — CAP Pillar II ≥25% climate-adaptation reallocation (~EUR 625 m)
High
Active
With Commission approval, reallocation of min. 25% of Hungary’s EUR 2.5 bn CAP Pillar II (~EUR 625 m) to climate adaptation priority. CAP climate-adaptation utilisation rate: 2026: 15%, 2027: 20%, 2030: 30%.
19
2027-01-07 — Drafting a heat-alert public-health action plan
Medium
Active
Track whether a uniform, pre-published heat-alert action plan is drafted within six months, tying accountable measures to HungaroMet’s alert levels, with its first live season next summer.
8
2027-05-03 — National Climate Adaptation Action Plan 2030 (NKACT-2030)
Medium
Active
Sectoral (agriculture, water, health, construction, energy) action tables with deadlines/owners; monthly public climate dashboard; annual Climate Adaptation Report to parliament (UK Climate Change Act 2008 model).
9
2027-12-31 — VAT-free irrigation equipment + Tisza-Great Plain catchment strategy
Medium
Active
VAT Act amendment + 60 small reservoirs + 200k ha water-conserving tillage (no-till, mulch, cover crop); target: irrigated area ~100k ha → +80-120k ha by end 2027.
10
2027-12-31 — Community watershed management — 5 pilot regions by 2027
Medium
Active
Watch whether community self-governed management of watershed regions (Tisza system, Lake Velence catchment) launches in 5 pilot regions by 2027, with transparent rules, monitoring and graduated sanctions.
11
2028-12-31 — Irrigation capacity 250k ha
Medium
Active
From current 100k ha to 250k ha; reservoir expansion along Tisza and Hortobágy; precision irrigation for <50 ha farms.
12
2028-12-31 — National Agro-Sensor Network — pulled forward by 24 months
Medium
Active
MG1 program point (1000 soil-sensor stations) scheduled build-out; real-time public API + Drought dashboard. 300 stations by end 2026, 700 by end 2027, 1000 by end 2028.
13
2029-12-31 — Groundwater monitoring 3000 wells
Low
Active
Currently ~1500 wells → 3000 with real-time public data; target: share of wells below 2022 historical minimum ~22% → <10% by 2030.
14
Legislative cycle — Real-time public water monitoring in every municipality
Medium
Active
Watch whether real-time public data on water pressure, reserve levels and quality becomes available for every municipality on a single national platform. Growing data coverage signals fulfilment.
15
Summer 2027 season — Cross-sector, quantified heatwave alert protocol by next summer
Medium
Active
Watch whether each heat-alert tier gets a pre-defined, numeric cross-sector action package (hospital reserve capacity, work schedules, active outreach to vulnerable groups). Fulfilment signal: a public, real-time, auditable data interface.
16
2027-2029 — Heat-resilient hospital and rail infrastructure programme
Low
Active
Whether the HUF 3.6 billion hospital climate retrofit continues through the announced 2027-2029 programme’s scheduled, accountable steps, and whether the number of rail sections under heat-related speed restrictions falls.
17
Summer 2027 — Cross-sector, quantified heat-alert protocol for the next summer season
Low
Active
Whether a tier-by-tier mandatory, quantified, cross-sector action package (health, schools, workplaces, transport) is produced with a public real-time data interface, replacing ad hoc prime-ministerial announcements with a pre-published rule set.
18
2027 (from the next budget year) — Launch of a national water-retention and drought-adaptation programme
Low
Active
Watch whether a real water-retention system starts building from the next budget year: restored streams and reservoirs, channel reconstruction, and a rising number of catchment regions covered.
20
2026 (with the climate act) — Accountable, deadline-bound adaptation targets in the climate act
Medium
Active
A good sign is the climate act due this year carrying binding, deadline-bound, annually accountable adaptation targets rather than vague principles, paired with a working drought-damage insurance scheme.
11. Healthcare reform and primary care
The healthcare cluster showed signs of professional depoliticisation this week: the chief medical officer appointment that had slipped for weeks was concluded on 2 June 2026 (Oroszi Beatrix, an epidemiologist; see Closed measurement points), and a professional leader (Szepezdi Zsuzsanna) was also placed at the head of the OGYÉI. In parallel with revoking the “heartbeat decree”, the government announced that from September the OEP will take over the adjudication of life-saving individual medication requests from the Batthyány-Strattmann Foundation — the second and third links of the appointment → institutional competence → procedural guarantee chain. The pattern will only be durable if professional autonomy and the mandatory professional consultation tied to legislation get a statutory guarantee, rather than remaining merely a personnel decision. The MIAK answer to the MOK’s “hospital closure” warning remains an evidence-based capacity review (not closure) and a nurse-retention package; the 7.1% GDP-share path and the reduction of waiting lists become measurable once the September 2026 reform draft is tabled in the National Assembly. This week the OKFŐ leadership change (hospital infection reporting) and the waiting-list deadline (the 15 August plan + dashboard) gained a shared transparency backbone, while after the facial-recognition shutdown the principled framework of purpose-bound, proportionate data processing becomes the benchmark. Healthcare supply security became tangible measurement points this week: reopening the Uzsoki maternity ward and commissioning the Bajcsy CT scanner test acute capacity restoration, while 100% coverage of the unified data platform and closing the nursing pay gap measure whether structural, data-driven career reform is built behind the firefighting.
1
2026-06-15 — Karikó advisory circle completed
Medium
Active
5-7 member health-policy expert panel attached to the Karikó advisory circle; with conflict-of-interest declarations.
2
2026-07-17 — NNGYK weekly epidemiology panel goes live
Medium
Active
Mandatory, weekly, lay-language epidemiology panel with ECDC data and a “what does this mean for the GP?” lane; met if the panel platform is live (within 60 days).
24
2026-07-20 — Reopening of the Uzsoki maternity ward
High
Active
The maternity ward, down for about ten days, is reported to reopen from 20 July. A good sign is service actually resuming on the stated date; further slippage is a red flag.
25
2026-07-23 — Commissioning of the new CT at Bajcsy emergency ward
High
Active
The hospital says the new CT scanner will be commissioned by 23 July, with emergency patients waiting in outdoor tents until then. A good sign is on-time commissioning and the end of outdoor waiting.
3
2026-07-31 — Return of drug-equity claims to NEAK, end of the foundation-era transition
High
Active
Watch whether adjudication of individual drug-equity claims returns to the state insurer (NEAK), while pending claims are handled by the phased-out foundation system until 31 July 2026. Fulfilment signal: faster, more transparent decisions after the transition.
17
2026-08-15 — Waiting-list reduction plan and public waiting-list dashboard
Medium
Active
Whether the waiting-list reduction plan is ready by 15 August, and whether its backbone is a real-time, institution-level, risk-adjusted public waiting-list dashboard.
4
2026-08-16 — GP pandemic protocol update and feedback measurement (≥90%)
Medium
Active
Every GP practice gets a fresh one-page pandemic protocol for rare pathogens; target ≥90% protocol feedback-measurement rate (within 90 days).
5
2026-09-01 — OEP takeover of individual medication requests
Medium
Active
According to the government’s announcement, from September the OEP takes over from the Batthyány-Strattmann Foundation the adjudication of life-saving individual (equity-based) medication requests. Signal: a smooth transition (no pending request falls through), a fixed adjudication deadline and anonymised public statistics (request count, turnaround time, approval rate).
6
2026-09-01 — Healthcare reform draft before the National Assembly
High
Active
First reading; primary-care priority and GDP path quantified.
18
2026-10-01 — Ex post release of withheld healthcare review reports (30-90 days)
Medium
Active
Whether the held, unreleased quality reports (like the 2015 review withheld for 10 years) are released in full, and whether publication becomes the default rather than withholding.
7
2026-11-14 — EU4Health joint procurement accession + IHR audit
Low
Active
Joining EU4Health 2025 joint procurements (vaccine, rapid test, PPE) and an independent IHR compliance audit along the 13 core capacities, with a public report (within 180 days).
8
2027-05-04 — Compassionate-use medication request turnaround below 30 days
Medium
Active
Reduction in Batthyány-Strattmann László Foundation turnaround from current 60-90 days to below 30.
9
2027-05-29 — Evidence-based hospital capacity review (reorganisation, not closure)
Medium
Active
An independent professional body conducts an institution-by-institution capacity review (by care volume, quality indicators, geographic access) — the professional answer to the MOK’s “hospital closure” warning; KPI: a fall in the share of waiting lists over 30 days.
10
2027-06-25 — Nurse-retention package and structural fix for hospital staffing shortage
Medium
Active
Watch whether within 12 months a comprehensive nurse-retention package (competitive pay, clinical career path, minimum staffing) and real-time waiting-list publication launch. Fulfilment signal: falling nurse shortage (the ~64/10,000 ratio approaching the EU ~85 average) and shorter waiting lists.
19
2027-07-02 — Enshrining mandatory, comparable hospital infection reporting in law (12 months)
Low
Active
Whether institution-by-institution, uniform-methodology, risk-adjusted public reporting of hospital infection rates becomes a statutory obligation, rather than depending on ministerial goodwill.
11
2027-12-31 — Healthcare spending share of GDP at 7.1%
High
Active
2027 budget shows healthcare GDP share at 7.1% (or higher); trackable on the Fiscal Council dashboard.
12
2027-12-31 — Waiting lists above 6 months reduced in 3 areas
High
Active
Reduction in hip prosthesis, cataract surgery, cardiology specialist care waiting lists; 2027-01-01 baseline, 2027-12-31 measurement.
27
2027-12-31 — Unified patient-satisfaction data platform at 100% coverage
Low
Active
The proposed KPI targets the unified patient-satisfaction and quality platform covering 100% of public and private providers by 2027. A good sign is the private sector being included in the shared measurement.
28
2029-07-12 — Closing the nurse-professional pay gap and a clinical career track
Low
Active
MIAK proposes raising the nurse minimum wage to 65% of the doctor minimum within three years, alongside a clinical (non-managerial) career path. A good sign is the pay gap actually closing and the career track launching.
13
2029-12-31 — Nurse-retention package — nurse minimum pay to 65% of the medical level
Low
Active
The nurse minimum wage rises in steps over three years to 65% of the medical level; KPI: nurse emigration halves by 2030 and the nurses-per-10,000-population ratio moves from ~64 towards the EU’s 85.
14
2030-12-31 — Healthcare spending share of GDP at 8%
Medium
Active
Rising GDP path from 6.8% to 8%: 2027: 7.1%, 2028: 7.4%, 2029: 7.7%, 2030: 8.0%.
15
Legislative cycle — Legal guarantee of the chief medical officer’s professional autonomy
Medium
Active
Whether the law establishes that the chief medical officer’s epidemiological/public-health professional decisions cannot be overridden for political reasons, and that the position is tied to a fixed, predictable term and professional conditions — the institutional safeguard of the durability of the Oroszi Beatrix appointment.
16
Legislative cycle — Mandatory professional-body consultation for healthcare legislation
Low
Active
Whether the making/revoking of healthcare legislation (such as the heartbeat decree) is accompanied by a mandatory, public professional-body opinion; indicator: what share of legislation had such an opinion.
20
Early autumn 2026 — Launch of public, institution-level hospital infection reporting
Medium
Active
Whether institution-level, comparable infection reporting starts in autumn 2026 (target: at least 80 percent of active inpatient hospitals in the first year), not merely a national average.
21
Ongoing — Purpose-bound, proportionate health data processing after the facial-recognition shutdown
Medium
Active
Whether the shutdown of hospital facial recognition extends into a principled framework: documenting purpose limitation and reviewing further biometric systems, making data security the starting point of design.
22
12-24 months — Rule-based, provider-neutral hospital resource-allocation formula
Low
Active
Whether a provider-independent, performance- and case-mix-based, pre-fixed resource-allocation formula for hospitals delivering the same public task (state and church) is published and applied, instead of case-by-case bargaining.
23
Within 3 years (KPI) — Cancer treatment started within 14 days of diagnosis
Low
Active
Whether the share of cases starting cancer treatment within 14 days reaches 90 percent, and whether the share waiting beyond 30 days halves within three years.
26
Autumn 2026 — Transparent private-public care delineation
Medium
Active
The minister promised a state-private settlement by autumn; MIAK asks for a data-based public framework with itemised separation of public and private funding flows. A good sign is a public, separated accounting launching in autumn.
12. Industrial safety, labour and environmental protection
The industrial-safety cluster gained a food-chain safety layer this week: following the African swine fever (ASF) detected in a backyard pig herd in Vállaj (Szabolcs county), the Nébih ordered an extraordinary quarantine and cull. The logic of prevention is the same as in the CATL, SEVESO and rail cases: a real-time, data-driven early-warning system and transparent zone communication is the basis of the response, not after-the-fact damage control. In the Debrecen CATL “green liquid” case a civil lab detected fetotoxic NMP solvent while the plant and the government office deny it — publication of the official measurement records and manufacturer-independent monitoring are the precondition for trust in the readings. The 25 May 2026 Kelenföld locomotive fire showed that the systemic vulnerability of critical infrastructure is as much an industrial-safety question as the SEVESO plants or the battery factories. The common axis: prevention is grounded in measurable data and public investigation, whether the risk is industrial or an animal epidemic.
1
2026-06-29 — Publication of the Debrecen CATL official measurement records (NMP case)
High
Active
Publication of the Hajdú-Bihar County Government Office’s measurement records in the Debrecen CATL “green liquid” case — resolving the contradiction between the official readings (NMP not detectable) and the civil lab (fetotoxic NMP).
2
2026-07-26 — Kelenföld locomotive fire — public technical inquiry into the systemic causes
Medium
Active
A public technical inquiry into the systemic causes of the 25 May 2026 Kelenföld locomotive fire and the paralysis of Transdanubian rail (why there was no diversion route, how the fault spread, fleet condition); an extraordinary MÁV inspection was ordered on 27 May 2026.
3
2026-08-04 — Lifting the Vállaj ASF quarantine — zero new outbreaks
High
Active
After the culled pig farm, whether there is no new African swine fever infection in the 3/10 km observation zone; if there is no new outbreak, the extraordinary quarantine can be lifted in ~two months. Target: zero new outbreaks; with accompanying fast, pre-fixed-formula relief (including for smallholders).
4
2026-08-21 — Publication of SEVESO inspection results for hazardous plants
Medium
Active
For every upper-tier hazardous plant, the date of the last official inspection, its main findings and the status of remedying deficiencies become available; target 100% public coverage (within 90 days).
5
2026-10-31 — Industrial-safety sector audit launched on 4 battery factories
High
Active
Interior Ministry OKF + GFM-led sector-level industrial-safety audit (CATL Debrecen, Samsung SDI Göd, SK Innovation Iváncsa, SK On Komárom) launched.
6
2026-11-30 — National asbestos monitoring program launched
High
Active
National asbestos monitoring program launched within 6 months under Interior Ministry / NNGYK lead, with mandatory reporting for road-base above 100 m³.
7
2026-11-30 — Asbestos Victim Relief and Damage Liability Fund set up
High
Active
Under joint Interior (health) + PM responsibility, with dual financing (responsible party + central reserve HUF 1-1.5 bn/year); 30-year medical screening program.
8
2026-11-30 — Joint and several occupational-safety liability decree
Medium
Active
GFM/Justice Ministry-led decree on joint and several occupational-safety liability + mandatory KSH accident-data publication.
9
2026-12-31 — Battery factory dedicated emergency-rescue base designated
Medium
Active
Dedicated bases officially designated within 15-minute radius of 4 battery factories and financing model fixed; corporate contribution model.
11
2027-05-31 — Battery factory audit full report + occupational-safety amendment
High
Active
4-factory full sector report (fire safety, occupational safety, emergency protocol), summary public; Act XCIII of 1993 amendment submitted (joint and several liability, accident publicity, occupational-health oversight).
12
2027-05-31 — Building-materials conformity legislation package before parliament
Medium
Active
Mandatory independent certification for imports above 1000 t; joint and several liability chain; 5-year procurement ban for proven violations.
13
2027-11-30 — 100% sampling of asbestos-affected localities
High
Active
On-site sampling completed at the estimated 50-80 affected localities; risk-map dashboard on NNGYK website with monthly refresh.
14
2027-12-31 — IÖSKP full coverage, 8-minute ambulance response time
Medium
Active
Industrial-Zone Emergency Capacity Program operational; average response time in industrial zones below 8 minutes (from 12-18).
15
2028-12-31 — 75% remediation rate of affected public surfaces
Medium
Active
Asbestos remediation on public surfaces 75% complete; 46 speed-limited streets down to under 10.
16
May 2027 — Public report of the independent technical investigation into the Tiszaújváros MOL explosion
Medium
Active
The independent technical investigation into the fatal Olefin-1 explosion (22 May 2026) is closed and made fully public; the remediation rate of the safety deficiencies uncovered, within the deadline (12 months).
10
2027-05-29 — Independent, accredited, real-time environmental monitoring at large investments
Medium
Active
An accredited measurement network independent of the manufacturer and the local authority, with real-time public data, around battery plants and similar large investments; KPI: a fall in the number of pollution episodes above the limit value.
17
Ongoing — Data-driven early-warning system + public zone communication (animal epidemic)
Medium
Active
Whether a real-time, public risk map is set up (neighbouring countries’ epidemic data, wild-boar monitoring, veterinary reports) and up-to-date zone/action communication. Indicator: the share of farms supplying real-time data; the duration of non-EU export restrictions.
13. Clemency reform and presidential-power transparency
Clemency reform became its own cluster this week because the 22 May 2026 Sándor Palace publication exposed a systemic fault: the Novák Katalin clemency was granted against the presidential office’s own professional opinion and without justification — so the problem is not a single bad decision but the total absence of justification, pre-screening and a register. The eight measurement points across four analysis blogs (19, 20, 22 and 24 May 2026) close this chain: mandatory machine-readable justification and publication of the cabinet opinion address the transparency of the decision, the attorney-stakeholder declaration and the extension of the lobbying register address the influence channel, and the independent ethics pre-screening provides preventive control of high-public-interest cases. The full entry into force on 31 December 2026 is the yardstick — until then clemency practice still runs under the old, unjustified regime, and every new case is evidence of reform slippage.
1
2026-07-18 — Mandatory clemency justification and registration obligation (clemency dashboard)
High
Active
Mandatory, published, machine-readable (XML/JSON) justification: ≥3 weighed criteria, ministerial submission, proof of victim notification (within 60 days).
2
2026-08-18 — Attorney-stakeholder declaration alongside the clemency petition
Medium
Active
Mandatory declaration: representative’s name, bar number, representation capacity, other political/official role, conflict-of-interest declaration; target 100% coverage of petitions by end 2027.
3
2026-08-20 — Clemency justification obligation (amendment of Act CCXII of 2011, cardinal)
Medium
Active
The President of the Republic gives a written justification for every clemency granted (with anonymised publicity); target justification rate 100% for the 2027-2028 decisions.
4
2026-11-15 — Independent ethics committee pre-screening for high-public-interest cases
Medium
Active
A 5-member independent ethics committee to vet clemency cases of child-protection/sexual/public-attention-heightening interest in advance; the opinion published in the file. The full reform in force by 31 December 2026.
5
2026-11-16 — Urging protocol with timestamps + min. 3-working-day waiting period
Medium
Active
Every Sándor Palace–Justice Ministry clemency communication is logged with a timestamp to the case file; min. 3-working-day waiting period between submission and countersignature.
6
2026-11-18 — Publication of the presidential office’s professional opinion
Medium
Active
The Sándor Palace rules of procedure require automatic, simultaneous-with-the-decision, anonymised publication of the cabinet opinion; target 100% publication rate within 30 days.
7
2027-05-19 — Annual parliamentary clemency report
Low
Active
The head of state presents the aggregate clemency statistics in an annual parliamentary report (petitions, positive/negative submissions, decisions against the ministerial position).
8
2027-05-20 — Extension of the lobbying register (A4) to clemency cases
Low
Active
The A4 register covers every clemency case (a public, lifelong-searchable record of meetings, calls, correspondence); target 100% documented events from 2027 Q4.
14. Employment and a data-driven labour market
This week two seemingly opposite events pointed to the same gap: the government decree halting guest-worker recruitment (5 June 2026) from the contraction of labour, and the battery-industry layoffs (~1500 people) caused by Chinese dumping from the release of labour — neither manageable without real-time, district-level employment data. The guest-worker stop only avoids producing unfilled capacity shortages and wage inflation in construction and manufacturing if the same data platform and targeted retraining that redirect the laid-off battery-industry workers also mobilise the internal reserve. The benchmark is therefore not the stop or the support on its own, but whether the decisions are grounded in data — otherwise the political gesture and the actual labour-market impact diverge. This week the combination of the wage surge and disinflation raised standing up a tripartite wage-coordination council to a measurement point: real-wage growth should durably not exceed productivity growth, or inflation returns.
1
2027-06-17 — Standing up a tripartite wage-coordination council
Medium
Active
Whether a government–employer–union wage-coordination mechanism is set up, and whether real-wage growth durably does not exceed productivity growth (HCSO data) — so that the wage surge does not feed back into inflation while the forint’s strength and disinflation leave room.
2
2027–2028 (12–24 months) — Unfilled vacancies and wages in construction and manufacturing
Medium
Active
Whether, following the guest-worker stop, the number of unfilled vacancies in construction and manufacturing rises (unfilled shortage = bad sign), and whether the domestic median/entry wage rises in the affected trades (good sign).
3
Precondition for the decision — Real-time, district-level employment data platform
Medium
Active
Whether the public, district-level interface is built (employment rate, unfilled vacancies, sectoral shortages) — the data basis for guest-worker quotas and for mobilising the internal reserve. Target: every district, real-time coverage.
4
In progress — Targeted, regionally differentiated retraining program
Medium
Active
Whether the data-platform-based, locally-demand-aligned retraining starts (with automatic flagging for declining-demand profiles, e.g. laid-off battery-industry workers); indicator: the share of retrainees who enter employment.
5
Annual public impact report — Managing the tariff shock on the labour market + trade-realignment report
Medium
Active
Whether targeted retraining and regional mobility support are launched for laid-off battery/automotive workers, based on an annual public “trade-realignment impact report”; whether, longer term, productivity (TFP, output per hour) improves.
6
12–36 months — Vocational reform: in-field placement and dual-partnership growth
Low
Active
Whether the structural change sets measurable outcome targets — does graduates in-field employment rate rise, do dual-training places/company partnerships expand in the 292,000-student system.
7
2027 budget cycle — Separating labour migration from asylum (points system)
Low
Active
Whether labour migration works through a skills-based points system tied to an occupation-shortage list (Canadian Express Entry model), legally separated from the asylum procedure.
Closed measurement points (last 30 days)
This week’s run closed three fulfilled measurement points, all pointing toward rule-of-law accountability and fiscal transparency. On the one hand, publication of the post-handover budget audit (8 July 2026, exposing a ~7.5% deficit for the year and ~HUF 400bn of hidden spending) satisfied both the opening-balance and the independent takeover-audit points; on the other, the impartial investigation of the gold-convoy case — run by NAV, independent of the intelligence service that filed the complaint — was closed on 9 July. The pattern counsels caution: fulfilment came where a single government act produced a measurable fact, while most of the points that mandate procedural safeguards remain open. Through ageing (closure beyond 30 days) three earlier records dropped off the list this week (the private-equity-fund and concession review package, submission of the revised RRF plan, and the transparency dimension of the NIS transaction — all from the 10–11 June band). The closed measurement points below stay here for 30 days so the reader can see the pattern of the recent period.
1
2026-07-09 — Publication of NAV money-laundering suspensions (30 days)
High
Done
On 2026-07-09 the NAV investigative authority closed the ‘gold-convoy’ probe with a formal decision, contradicting the intelligence service’s complaint — an impartial investigation independent of the reporting agency.
2
2026-07-08 — “Risk list” for the 150–200 position changes (procedural map)
Medium
Done
The Ministry of Finance published the post-handover budget audit on 2026-07-08, exposing ~HUF 400bn of hidden spending and a ~7.5% deficit — the inherited fiscal opening balance.
3
2026-07-08 — Independent budget handover audit
High
Done
The government’s audit of the inherited public finances was completed and published on 2026-07-08; Kármán reported a ~7.5% deficit and ~HUF 400bn of spending left out of the budget.
4
2026-07-01 — Self-restraint pledge on the removal rules for the head of state
High
Missed
No public self-restraint pledge was made by the 1 July deadline; on the contrary, in early July 2026 the governing majority submitted the 17th amendment to the Fundamental Law to terminate President Tamás Sulyok’s mandate (3–5 July monitor). Source: press monitor 2026-07-05.
5
2026-06-30 — Abolition of the Sovereignty Protection Office by law
High
Done
On 30 June 2026 the National Assembly passed the law abolishing the Sovereignty Protection Office, and President Tamás Sulyok signed it the same day (1 July monitor). Source: press monitor 2026-07-01.
6
2026-06-27 — Media-freedom framework bill draft for public consultation (60 days)
High
Done
Administrative consultation; draft publication. Source: press monitor 2026-06-27.
7
2026-06-27 — Public-media budget commissioner’s mandate limited to financial powers
High
Done
The appointment instrument should grant only financial-accounting powers, expressly excluding news editing and programming; signal: the mandate’s scope (yes/no) and the itemised, public traceability of MTVA’s (HUF 155bn) finances. Source: press monitor 2026-06-27.
8
2026-06-23 — V4 summit in Budapest — an issue-based regional restart
High
Done
Whether Magyar Péter holds the 23 June V4 summit in Budapest and whether regional cooperation restarts on an issue-based (not bloc-based) footing — the first regional test of the post-Orbán foreign-policy direction. Source: press monitor 2026-06-23.
9
2026-06-23 — Parliamentary vote on phasing out the protected fuel price
High
Done
Whether parliament votes to phase out the protected fuel price (the market price already fell below the protected level on 19 June 2026), and whether it is accompanied by a pre-announced, time-banded schedule — with a threshold-bound exception reserved for a geopolitical shock, not a surprise one-off step. Source: press monitor 2026-06-23.
10
2026-06-19 — 16th amendment to the Fundamental Law passed and signed for promulgation
High
Done
The National Assembly passed the 16th amendment on 15 June 2026 (an 8-year prime-ministerial term limit, abolition of the KEKVA foundations and the Sovereignty Protection Office, reclaiming of withdrawn public assets); President Tamás Sulyok — with explicit reservations — signed it for promulgation on 19 June 2026. Source: press monitor 16 & 20 June 2026.
11
2026-06-19 — Modified RRF plan proposed for European Commission approval
High
Done
In under ten days the European Commission proposed approval of Hungary’s modified recovery plan submitted on 10 June 2026 (about EUR 10 billion); at Magyar Péter’s first EU summit as head of government the fund release entered its operational phase. Source: press monitor 20 June 2026.
12
2026-06-12 — Opening of the first EU–Ukraine/Moldova accession cluster
High
Done
On 12 June 2026 von der Leyen announced that the EU–Ukraine and EU–Moldova accession negotiations officially open (first cluster on 15 June 2026, Luxembourg); Hungary consented to the opening by lifting its veto. Source: press monitor 13 June 2026.
13
2026-06-12 — EU-internal, institutional embedding of the Transcarpathian position
Medium
Done
On 12 June 2026 the Hungary–Ukraine agreement on the language, education and cultural rights of Transcarpathian Hungarians became official and was placed under EU monitoring — the EU-internal, institutional embedding of the Transcarpathian position was achieved. Source: press monitor 13 June 2026.
14
2026-06-12 — Submission of the public-media overhaul bill
High
Done
On 12 June 2026 the Tisza group submitted to Parliament the full public-media overhaul bill (abolition of MTVA, an Independent Public Media Board, a Press Fund). Source: press monitor 13 June 2026.
The watchlist is refreshed weekly, every Sunday at 16:00. Measurement points are sourced from concrete deadlines and performance indicators called out in MIAK analyses. Every row links to the source analysis.