Part I — Situation overview

The start of the 2026–27 school year brings two complementary changes in lower primary education. On the Friday of week 2026-W32 the reorganisation of school governance was the focus of attention: head teachers get their employer powers back, and the role of the school district centres — the intermediate-level organisations which have centrally coordinated the maintenance and operation of schools since the creation of the Klebelsberg Centre (2013) — is modified. On Saturday and Sunday the pedagogical content also became public: in lower primary education the length of lessons falls from the usual forty-five minutes to thirty-five, the amount of homework is limited, and daily story reading is introduced. The package takes effect on 1 September, at the same time as the start of the school year — nine days from 23 August, the date given by MIAK’s press monitor.

The topic made the top items of the daily press monitor on all three days, but because of the daily processing quota it received no separate analysis on any of them; MIAK’s weekly summary noted in the section ‘What we did not publish separately’ that as yet there is no public impact assessment or measurement plan attached to the package. This gap provided the reason for the topic to receive a separate post in the afterlife of the weekly digest, within the topic proposal processing — the introduction is a dated government decision taking effect within nine days, and MIAK therefore treats it as a trigger event, regardless of the fact that it had previously appeared before the public only at the level of a mention.

In MIAK’s reading, the organisation of lessons and the amount of homework are substantive pedagogical questions in which it is not the direction of the decision but the evidential basis and measurability that are missing. If an organisational change introduced at the start of a school year is not accompanied by output indicators and a baseline fixed in advance, then a year from now it will not be possible to decide whether the package really improved learning or merely rearranged the daily timetable. Moreover, the question does not burden the country evenly: the same shorter lesson has a different effect where the conditions of after-school provision and of getting to school differ from the Budapest average.

Part II — Foundations in the literature

The conceptual frame of the situation comes together from four sources. John Hattie (New Zealand education researcher, author of Visible Learning) draws from a synthesis of more than 800 meta-analyses the conclusion that the effect of interventions is best ranked by effect size (denoted d — a statistical measure expressing how many standard deviations of improvement a given intervention brings); in this system the effect of homework is small and varies by age group, while structural interventions (class size, lesson length) regularly fall among the categories with the weakest effect. The World Bank’s World Development Report 2018 introduces the concept of the ’learning crisis’: the expansion of enrolment does not in itself bring an improvement in learning outcomes, and the first cause of the system-level problem is precisely the absence of measurement. The PISA 2022 Results series of the OECD (the economic cooperation organisation of the developed market economies; PISA being the international competence assessment of 15-year-old students) shows that Hungarian student performance is determined more strongly than the OECD average by socioeconomic background — this is what links the pedagogical question to territorial inequality. Andreas Schleicher (the professional head of the PISA programme) refutes in World Class, with international data, the widely held assumption that structural changes (such as reducing class size) improve results on their own — according to the evidence, resources invested in teachers regularly bring a higher return. The detailed treatment of the literature — author by author, with quotations — can be found in section 6.4 Literature in detail.

Part III — MIAK’s concrete proposal

MIAK proposes three measurable measures. All three start from the position that the direction of the introduction may be well founded, but that the absence of measurability is in itself a risk — and because of the days remaining until the start of the school year, some of the steps have to be taken immediately and others in the first weeks of the school year.

3.1 A public output indicator plan by the start of the school year

MIAK asks that the education administration — the education portfolio has been part of the Ministry of the Interior since 2022, so responsibility lies there — publish by the start of the school year a public, numerical measurement plan for the reform package: on which output indicators (academic results, reading comprehension and mathematics competence assessment, student and parent satisfaction) the effect will be measured, what the baseline (spring 2026) value is, and when the first public evaluation will take place. This is the direct application of the O3 data-driven education development programme point to a concrete, dated measure. Without the plan, even four or five years from now the reform will only be assessable as a narrative — ‘do teachers and parents feel it is better’ — and not as a measured result. Among the output indicators at least one measure comparable with the current competence assessment must be included, so that the effect of the package can be compared with that of earlier year groups.

3.2 A territorial impact assessment of the timetable change (in the first half of the school year)

The second proposal concerns the territorial consequences of the shorter lesson. MIAK asks that in the first half-year the education administration carry out a targeted survey of how the shorter lesson affects after-school provision and the organisation of parents’ working hours in the most disadvantaged districts, where public services — including school accompaniment provision — are already weaker than the national average. This applies the logic of the KI3 measurable bureaucracy reduction programme point to the field of education, supplemented by the data needs of the Territorial inequality and rural policy area. On the basis of the survey results, where the timetable change imposes a disproportionate burden on families a targeted compensating measure (extended after-school care, accompaniment service) is needed — without this, a pedagogically justified change may further reinforce territorial inequality.

3.3 Designating who is responsible for monitoring implementation (immediately)

The third proposal seeks an answer to the question raised by the coupling of the two reforms running in parallel — the reorganisation of school governance and the change of pedagogical content: who is responsible for making sure that in the time remaining before the start of the school year teachers receive the necessary preparation and teaching-material support. MIAK asks that the organisational unit responsible for monitoring implementation be unambiguously named — whether at the level of the school district centres or centrally — and that it be published what preparation teachers receive in the days remaining before the introduction. This is a precondition of the O8 performance-based teacher motivation programme point: developmental feedback works only if the teacher has been prepared in advance for what is expected of them.

The three proposals are linked by a common principle: according to Hattie’s effect size logic (see 6.4.1) structural interventions — such as lesson length — typically have a small effect on their own, and therefore the real yield of the reform depends on what accompanies the structural change: prepared teachers, a measured baseline, territorial sensitivity. And the World Bank’s concept of the learning crisis (see 6.4.2) warns that the absence of measurement is in itself a system failure — not after-the-fact administration but a precondition of the reform’s success.

Part IV — Expected effects and risks

Dimension Expected effect Risk
Education The shorter lesson and daily story reading can be pedagogically justified if preparation and measurement take place at the same time as the introduction Without a measurement plan the effect of the reform will not be decidable even a year later, and the debate will continue on the basis of mere impressions
Society (territorial) The timetable change may relieve families in some regions (earlier arrival home) Where after-school care and accompaniment provision are weak, the shorter lesson shifts the burden onto the organisation of parents’ working hours
Public administration Returning employer powers to head teachers gives local flexibility for the introduction The simultaneity of the school district organisation’s change of role and the pedagogical reform may blur implementation responsibility if no one is designated

The main question to weigh is how much time the 1 September deadline leaves for preparation. Lesson organisation and homework regulation are in themselves relatively low-risk, readily reversible measures — which is precisely why they are ideal for being introduced in a measured way, with a control-group-like comparison. The risk increases if the introduction takes place without a measurement plan and at the same time intertwined with the reorganisation of school governance: in that case the cause of any failure or success will not be separable afterwards between the organisational change and the pedagogical content.

Part V — Measurability and summary

5.1 What is worth following? (proposed KPIs)

The following performance indicators (KPIs, Key Performance Indicators) will show at 6, 12 and 24 months whether the reform package has become a measurable programme concluding with lessons learned. These are proposed yardsticks, not government commitments.

  • The appearance and content of the measurement plan: whether the output indicators and the baseline (spring 2026) reference value are published by the start of the school year.
  • The date of the first public evaluation: whether the first public evaluation after the introduction takes place at the end of the school year, and whether it includes a comparison with earlier year groups.
  • Completion of the territorial impact assessment: whether the survey of after-school and accompaniment provision effects in disadvantaged regions is completed in the first half-year, and whether targeted compensation follows.
  • Coverage of teacher preparation: what percentage of teachers received targeted preparation in the time remaining before the introduction.

5.2 Summary

MIAK’s request to the decision-maker comprises three concrete steps: a public output indicator plan for the reform package should appear by the start of the school year; a survey of the territorial — after-school and accompaniment provision — effects of the shorter lesson should be completed in the first half-year; and it should be unambiguously designated who is responsible for monitoring implementation alongside the school governance reorganisation running in parallel. MIAK’s message to the public is simple: one does not have to dispute the direction of the introduction in order to demand its measurability.

Two MIAK foundational values move here directly. Data-drivenness, because the core of the proposal is that the success or failure of the reform should be decided not by impression but by an indicator fixed in advance. And universal representation, because the effect of a nationally uniform organisational decision is not spread evenly — the territorial impact assessment is the guarantee that children in the most disadvantaged regions do not bear the burden of the timetable change disproportionately.

Part VI — Justifications and further sources

6.1 The framing of the press

No separate, downloadable article URLs were available for this post: the topic appeared as a top item in three consecutive daily press monitor runs (7, 8 and 9 August 2026), but because of the daily processing quota it received no separate analysis on any of those days, so MIAK processed it only through the brief mention in the weekly summary and the summary of the internal topic proposal processing. For this reason this section cannot give a full spectrum analysis of the different framings of the papers — the source basis of this post differs from that of the blogs generated from the daily press monitor, and rests rather on MIAK internal background material (the proposal processing and the summary of the weekly digest) than on primary press sources.

6.2 Facts and data

Data Value Source
Date of introduction of the reform package 1 September 2026 MIAK weekly summary, 2026-W32
Lesson length in the new system 35 minutes (instead of the previous 45) MIAK weekly summary, 2026-W32
PISA mathematics result, Hungary (2022) 473 points OECD PISA 2022 Results
PISA mathematics result, OECD average (2022) 472 points OECD PISA 2022 Results
Effect of socioeconomic background (ESCS) on PISA mathematics, Hungary ~42 points per unit of ESCS OECD PISA 2022 (MIAK policy area: Education, background material)
Effect of socioeconomic background (ESCS), OECD average ~36 points per unit of ESCS OECD PISA 2022
Early school leaving (aged 18–24), Hungary 12.4% MIAK policy area: Education (background material)
Early school leaving, EU average 9.6% MIAK policy area: Education (background material)
School drop-out rate, most disadvantaged districts 20–30% MIAK policy area: Territorial inequality and rural policy (background material)
School drop-out rate, national average ~12% MIAK policy area: Territorial inequality and rural policy (background material)
Effect size of homework on academic results (Hattie synthesis) d = 0.29 (average, varying by age group) John Hattie: Visible Learning
Effect size of class size reduction (Hattie synthesis) d = 0.21 John Hattie: Visible Learning

The most important conclusion of the table follows from a comparison of the last two rows: the widely popular structural interventions — class size reduction, and, according to the international literature, similarly the modification of lesson length — typically have smaller effect sizes than public discourse assumes. This does not mean that the reform now being introduced will be ineffective, but that the size of the effect is an empirical question to which an answer can only be obtained with a measurement plan — which is precisely what justifies the proposals in Part III.

6.3 Policy dimensions

  • Education (programme points) — the question of output indicators and teacher preparation: O3, O8;
  • Territorial inequality and rural policy (background material) — the uneven territorial burden of the timetable change, the dispersion of access to public services;
  • Public administration and e-government (programme points) — the order of responsibility for monitoring implementation and the methodology of measurable bureaucracy reduction: KI3.

6.4 Literature in detail

6.4.1 John Hattie: Visible Learning

Hattie projects the synthesis of more than 800 meta-analyses onto a single scale — effect size (d) — in order to make the effect of different pedagogical interventions comparable. On this scale a value around d = 0.40 is the ‘average annual progress’ that a teacher typically achieves in one school year; below and above this one can speak of small or large effects.

“Over these five meta-analyses there were 161 studies involving more than 100,000 students, which investigated the effects of homework on students’ achievement. The average of all these effect sizes was d = 0.29 […] the effects do decrease with age: primary students gain least from homework (d = 0.15) and secondary students have greater gains (d = 0.64).”

In the case of the homework regulation now being introduced, this synthesis means that the effect of the intervention varies by age group, and that in lower primary education — precisely the age group now affected — it is smallest. This is not in itself an argument against the regulation, but it is a strong argument for actually measuring the effect after the introduction rather than assuming it.

📖 Source: John Hattie: Visible Learning — A Synthesis of over 800 Meta-Analyses Relating to Achievement

6.4.2 World Bank: World Development Report 2018

The World Bank report introduces the concept of the ’learning crisis’ because in many countries of the world the expansion of school attendance has not brought a proportionate improvement in learning outcomes — and according to the report one main reason for this is that systems do not regularly measure what happens in the classroom.

“The learning crisis is often hidden — but measurement makes it visible.”

This proposition fits the present topic directly: the lower-primary reform now being introduced is risky not because its direction would be wrong, but because as yet there is no measurement attached to it that would make the effect of the introduction visible. According to the report, measurement is not after-the-fact administration but a precondition of action — this provides the basis in principle for proposal 3.1 in Part III.

📖 Source: World Bank: World Development Report 2018 — Learning to Realize Education’s Promise

6.4.3 OECD: PISA 2022 Results

According to the Hungarian PISA 2022 data, socioeconomic background (the income, educational and cultural situation of the student’s family) determines academic performance more strongly than in the OECD average: a one-unit increase in the ESCS index is associated in Hungary with a difference of about 42 points in mathematics performance, as against 36 points in the OECD average.

“While socioeconomic status remains a significant predictor of performance in these and other OECD countries and economies, education in these countries can be considered highly equitable.”

The volume highlights as examples those systems in which the effect of socioeconomic background is low — in these systems equity is not opposed to performance but goes together with it. From the point of view of the Hungarian lower-primary reform this means that the effect of an in itself neutral organisational decision (lesson length) may differ depending on background, and therefore the territorial impact assessment under proposal 3.2 in Part III is not a separate matter but an integral part of the measurement plan.

📖 Source: OECD: PISA 2022 Results (Vol. I — The State of Learning and Equity in Education)

6.4.4 Andreas Schleicher: World Class

Schleicher — the professional head of the PISA programme — refutes in his book, with international comparative data, six assumptions widely held in the international education policy debate. Of these, the proposition on structural interventions is the one most directly connected to the present topic.

“It might be politically popular to argue for smaller classes, but there is no cross-national evidence to show that reducing class size is the best avenue towards improving results. […] the highest-performing education systems in PISA tend to prioritise the quality of teachers over the size of classes.”

The proposition is not about lesson length, but the logic behind it is the same: politically popular structural changes (smaller classes, shorter lessons) rarely bring the hoped-for result on their own if they are not accompanied by resources invested in teachers. This gives the reason for proposal 3.3 in Part III: the condition of the present reform’s success is not primarily the length of the lesson but the preparation of teachers for it.

📖 Source: Andreas Schleicher: World Class — How to Build a 21st-Century School System

6.5 International comparison

In the Finnish education system a significant part of lesson time (according to Schleicher’s volume about one third) is devoted to self-regulated learning outside the classroom, but this structure was built up by a decades-long, gradual and continuously measured reform process — not by a single change introduced at the start of one school year. The Dutch education inspectorate system (Onderwijsinspectie) gives every school an annual data-based evaluation, and a targeted support programme is immediately attached to underperforming schools — this is the international precedent for the O3 programme point, and it realises precisely the measurement and feedback cycle whose absence MIAK signals in the Hungarian reform now being introduced.

Education

  • O3 — Data-driven education development
  • O8 — Performance-based teacher motivation

Public administration and e-government

  • KI3 — Measurable bureaucracy reduction

Proposed new programme point: A mandatory ex ante impact assessment and measurement plan for every educational reform of content or organisation introduced at the start of a school year — for the Education policy area.

6.7 List of sources

Press sources (MIAK press monitor, title-level reference):

  • MIAK press monitor, 7 August 2026 — topic 4
  • MIAK press monitor, 8 August 2026 — topic 9
  • MIAK press monitor, 9 August 2026 — topic 6
  • MIAK weekly summary — 2026-W32

Knowledge base references (literature):

  • 📖 John Hattie: Visible Learning — A Synthesis of over 800 Meta-Analyses Relating to Achievement
  • 📖 World Bank: World Development Report 2018 — Learning to Realize Education’s Promise
  • 📖 OECD: PISA 2022 Results (Vol. I)
  • 📖 Andreas Schleicher: World Class — How to Build a 21st-Century School System

Note: the local file path of the books does not appear in the visible text of the blog — only the author and the title. The file path is an internal matter of the generation process, not the reader’s.

MIAK internal materials:

  • MIAK policy area: Education (programme points; programme point IDs: O3, O8)
  • MIAK policy area: Territorial inequality and rural policy (background material)
  • MIAK policy area: Public administration and e-government (programme points; programme point ID: KI3)
  • MIAK topic proposal processing, 23 August 2026 — topic 1, score: 95/100

Supplementary public data sources:

  • OECD PISA 2022 database — Hungary country report
  • KSH — education and early school leaving statistics

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